The 2011 Grand Final Preview: Collingwood vs. Geelong | Thebigtip

It's that time of year again.
 
Melbourne is abuzz as the Grand Final approaches, captivating even the most casual of football supporters. If there's anything that's sure to attract the attention of a nation, it's a blockbuster Grand Final. Thankfully, that's exactly what we have.
 
As it usually is, the minor premiership winners in the Collingwood Magpies will face the second-placed and surprisingly rampaging Geelong Cats on Saturday afternoon in front of a sell out crowd. In terms of match ups, this has to be the most anticipated Grand Final since the West Coast/Sydney rematch in 2006.

 
Collingwood
 
Wins (H&A): 20
Losses (H&A): 2
Biggest Win: Collingwood (23.21.159) def. Port Adelaide (3.3.21)
Biggest Loss: Collingwood (8.5.53) def. by Geelong (22.17.149)
Form: WWWWWWLWWWWWWWWWWWWWWLWW
 
The Magpies were incredibly dominant all season, finding the perfect balance between rotating positions in the team and resting the star players. As a result, Collingwood only lost two games for the season. With Travis Cloke in magnificent form up forward and the inclusion of live wire Andrew Krakouer, Collingwood have enjoyed an increased output from the forward line. Only on six occasions did the Magpies kick under 100 points, and two of those were in a high pressure finals environment.

Coach Mick Malthouse said during the week that the game would definitely be the last at the helm of Collingwood, so there will be an added incentive to claim victory (if there could possibly be a bigger reason to win than a premiership).
 
 
Positive - key inclusions
 
The returns of lively half-back Heath Shaw and ball magnet Dale Thomas are huge for the Magpies. Shaw's run out of the back line will compliment Harry O'Brien and Leon Davis' defensive dashes perfectly, while Thomas' ability to extract the ball from tight situations makes him worth his weight in gold. Both have also had the opportunity to get some minutes into their legs, having each served their suspensions.
 
Chris Dawes, who recently returned from a hand injury in Round 23, is that other key target the Magpies can look to target inside 50. Travis Cloke is a super talent - there's no doubting that - but to not have the pressure solely on his shoulders will allow Cloke to play more freely, as well as offer Dawes the opportunity to bob up and kick a bag.
 
 
Negative - structure-crippling injuries
 
Things were already looking rocky for the Magpies when key defender Nathan Brown was ruled out for the season back in February, but Ben Reid has provided excellent coverage in his absence. Since stepping up, Reid has consistently performed well in the back half. Unfortunately for Collingwood, he suffered an injury in Collingwood's Friday night triumph over Hawthorn, believed to be a torn adductor muscle. If Reid is to miss the big one, the large bodies of James Podsiadly and Tom Hawkins have the chance to run wild.
 
In similar fashion, ex-Collingwood star backman Simon Prestigiacomo pulled out of the 2010 Grand Final with injury, and the Magpies were the ones holding the premiership cup aloft. All would not be lost if Reid is unable to get up for the big dance.
 
Also with an adductor muscle tear is ruckman Darren Jolly, whose injury is suspected to be worse than Reid's. With both Reid and Jolly missing, Geelong would instantly have an advantage before the ball has even been bounced.
 
Captain Nick Maxwell and Ben Johnson each pulled up sore, but are expected to play with no concerns.
 
 
Keys to victory
 
Geelong are one of the best in the competition at applying pressure, and if the Magpies allow it to get to them, they will be in trouble. It won't be easy, but finding the ball in space will allow time for the likes of Dane Swan, Scott Pendlebury and Dale Thomas to line up and accurately spot up a target inside the forward 50 rather than bombing the ball on top of Cloke and Dawes' head.
 
It's time for the rebound defenders to stand up in a big game and provide the run-and-carry that will be essential in gaining the ascendency. While also doing their part in applying the infamous Collingwood press, Harry O'Brien, Heath Shaw and Leon Davis all have the ability to extract the football from tight situations, tuck the footy under the arm and go for a gallop. All three will need to do this, as well as take care of the lively Geelong small forwards, in order for Collingwood to win.
 
 
 
Geelong
 
Wins (H&A): 19
Losses (H&A): 3
Biggest win: Geelong (37.11.233) def. Melbourne (7.5.47)
Biggest loss: Geelong (12.14.86) def. by Sydney (15.9.99)
Form: WWWWWWWWWWWWWLLWWWWWLWWW
 
With ex-coach Mark Thompson and Brownlow Medalist Gary Ablett both departing the club at the end of 2010, many predicted Geelong to slide down the ladder and enter their rebuilding phase. With Chris Scott breathing new life into the experienced Cats, Geelong only dropped three games for the season and went undefeated for fourteen rounds. With young, budding superstars slotting straight into the side in Mitch Duncan, Daniel Menzel and Allen Christensen, Geelong have booked their place in a fourth Grand Final in five years.
 
 
Positive - midfield dominance
 
When Gary Ablett left the club, the Geelong midfield looked to have been significantly weakened. However, it appears that the midfield has become Geelong's biggest strength. James Kelly, Jimmy Bartel, Corey Enright and Joel Selwood have all found plenty of the football regularly, but they also know how to use it well. Steve Johnson's influence pushing up into the midfield from the forward line has also added another dimension to the already miserly Cats' centre third.
 
With excellent service from Brad Ottens and the up-and-coming Trent West from the ruck, Geelong's midfield looks stronger than ever.
 
 
Negative - tiring legs
 
The experience in this Geelong side is a huge asset, but in each of Geelong's three losses this season, the older players have seemed to look tired. With just one game to go in the season, that experience may be the downfall.
 
Steve Johnson will also struggle to get up for the clash, having injured his knee after it was caught in a tackle. Although the knock looked sickening, Johnson received word that a major ligament injury or kneecap dislocation had been avoided, but there is plenty of work for the lively forward to do if he is to get up in time for the game. With that said, Johnson isn't known for laying down and taking what has been dealt when it comes to injury.
 
 
Keys to victory
 
For Geelong to win, they simply need to do what they have done all year - be consistent with their game plan. Worrying a team off the footy is what Geelong have been able to better than any other team in the competition this season. The Cats know how to win, and have developed somewhat of a winning culture over the past five years. The big stage was made for teams like that of the modern Geelong Cats; it comes down to them keeping their nerve.
 
The troublesome Travis Cloke will loom as a huge threat to the Cats. It's important to apply scoreboard pressure, but even more important is stopping your opponent from doing the same. Harry Taylor, Josh Hunt and Matthew Scarlett all have the huge job ahead of them of maintaining the forward beasts in Cloke and Dawes. Forwards seem to drop their heads when things don't go right for them, so getting on top of them at the earliest chance is pivotal.
 
 
My prediction
 
Although Collingwood have been the dominant team all year, having only lost to one team all season, that one team turns out to be the side standing in between them and a second consecutive premiership. Although their last meeting is hard to read into with the Magpies resting up for finals (Geelong comfortably ran out 96-point winners), you get the feeling that Geelong have Collingwood's measure.
 
If Ben Reid and Darren Jolly don't get up for the game, you would think Geelong would take advantage of the opportunity and claim a third premiership in five years. On the other hand, if both recover and Steve Johnson is unable to play, a potential three or four goals is removed from Geelong's final score.
 
At this stage, it's all just speculation as to who or who will not make the team come Saturday, but with Darren Jolly in the most doubt of the three most prominently under the injury cloud, Geelong have an early advantage. With both teams at full strength, I'd be inclined to tip Collingwood to raise the cup. However, that isn't the case.
 
In a game that will be won and lost in the midfield, as both sides are evenly matched in defence and in the forward line, the Cats are the side that appeal to me most.
 
Prediction: Geelong by 14 points.