Will round 21 affect the Premiership odds? | Thebigtip

The ugly mauling of the Western Bulldogs last weekend has confirmed what many already thought. The 2010 premiership race is down to three and the rest may as well pack their sports bags and prepare for the off-season. As the odds suggest, there is no reason to believe that anyone other than Collingwood, Geelong and St. Kilda have a chance at winning the Premiership.

Current Betfair Premiership Odds:

Collingwood $3.15

Geelong $3.10

St.Kilda $5.80

Will this weekend's games affect these odds in any way?

Collingwood have won nine of their past ten games (one draw against Melbourne) and have shown the AFL world that going into finals, they are a force to be feared after displaying dominant performances against all opposition. Sitting six point clear of second on the ladder, they're on top of a team that has been labelled one of the best sides ever in reigning premier Geelong. An expected win this weekend against Adelaide won't adjust their September chances.

The Cats have not played the same football as we have expected them to in the later part of the season but a dominant thumping over the Bulldogs gives enough reason to believe that they are not going to rest on their two Premierships from three years. A win tonight against Carlton, whom suprisingly have won the last two over the Cats, will undoubtedly ensure the Cats go into September as the flag favourites with form and experience.

St. Kilda's season received a hiccup early on when superstar power forward Nick Riewoldt found himself sidelined for the major portion of the season. They managed to keep themselves near the top of the ladder and after a few Reiwoldt-conscious games, they find themselves steadying the ship and cruising towards finals in third. A win against Richmond won't tell us much more about their ability to atone for 2009. 

As for the five other teams that may make the eight- they stand next to no chance as the odds suggest.

The Bulldogs seem to have reoccurring "mishaps" whenever they play a team that looks as though they are serious about naming themselves Premiers. They can dominate against the lesser teams but when faced with a challenge against a serious contender, they are left looking like scolded dogs. The thumping that they received from Geelong is a prime display that they can't hold their own against one of the best. But if they can overcome Sydney this week, they may offer some encouragement to their supporters.

Fremantle have had a terrible run both on the field and with injuries. Their top four form has disintegrated with the loss of Michael Barlow and more recently their man mountain Aaron Sandilands. Resting a further seven players with 'soreness' this weekend says one thing- they expect a loss to Hawthorn and are backing themselves to beat Carlton the following week to make the final eight.

Carlton and Sydney have now sealed a place in the final eight and although recent form has been solid, they seem to struggle to pull away from the middle tier teams. Wins against top four opposition teams this weekend though and their odds will undoubtedly shorten.

Hawthorn, whom threatened to be a power with a great run of mid season form, should hold onto a place in the finals and keep out North Melbourne, but quite simply these teams haven't been good enough to run with the best and are merely better than the rest of the also rans. A win over a WAFL standard team in Fremantle this weekend won't lead to a huge Hawks betting plunge.

So how will round 21 affect the premiership odds? If the Cats win they firm further, if they get beaten by the Blues then possibly Collingwood become the September shortners.