Defender Decline? | Thebigtip

Another week of fantasy footy is over and the first glimpses of new trends and patterns are starting to emerge. One such pattern is the current decline in scores from defenders, particularly premium defenders.
 
Every coach will be cursing their premium defenders this year. With the exception of Gibbs and Gram, there is no premium backman that has been able to put 3 impressive scores together. But what does this mean?
 
On first impression, it seems every AFL team’s desire to copy the Magpies' forward pressure is affecting the defenders' scores. No longer are defenders afforded space behind the ball to chip the ball around and accumulate uncontested football. Instead, the forwards are flooding their forward 50, tackling at every opportunity and ensuring the footy coming out of the backline in contested. The kick-out zones are also getting tighter as the opposition no longer allows the short kick to the defensive pocket.
 
But can this be statistically proven?
 
To try and prove this theory we have tabled the top 20 defenders from last year and compared their 2010 averages against their current 2011 averages. We have used Dream Team scores, however the result should also be relevant to Supercoach.

Now these results shocked me. They highlight that average scores have gone down 19 points per player. That’s a 21% reduction in output from the top 20 defenders - amazing. No wonder so many fantasy footy coaches are on edge so early in the season. If you decided on a 5 premium defensive strategy, chances are you in strife already.
 
The other interesting statistic is that only Gibbs and Enright have improved their scores and Gibbs moved into the midfield. So, our initial thoughts on the frontal pressure negatively impacting the defender scores seems to be justified.

However, to confirm that it’s not just a reflection of the form of the top 20 defenders from last year, we also compared the 2010 top 20 defenders averages against the 2011 top 20 defenders averages. Surprisingly, this also reveals a different outlook.

On average, the top 20 defenders this year are only scoring 4 points less than the class of 2010. That’s only a 4% reduction.
 
So what does all this mean?
 
The AFL teams have identified the gun defenders from last year and the preferred defenders each team uses to rebound (eg. Fremantle – Broughton & Duffield) and tried to close them down through tags and pressure. They have forced these sides to find other avenues and players to rebound. Sure there is still a lot of truth to frontal pressure and zones influencing defenders scores to decline. However, these are being emphasised by the fact we have all selected the same premium defenders, who starred last year. So far, they have struggled to replicate the same form this year.
 
So do you trade your premiums?
 
My tip is to hold your premium defenders. They too are adjusting to the new press and will figure their way around it. Instead, use this to your advantage and trade in key premium defenders that will reduce in price. Remember to use the break-even scores to ensure you trade them in once their price has bottomed out. Whatever you do, avoid paying top prices for a defender (unless you still do not have Gibbs – what were you thinking) as they will all come down in price based on the current form line.