Dogmat's Fantasy Footy Wrap - Round 2 | Thebigtip

 

In week 1 they played a competitive side in Essendon. As a result, their player average scores were approximately 20 points less than in Round 2 when they played the Lions. After week 1, coaches were panicking about the performances of Higgins, Griffen, Boyd, Cross, etc. However, that completely turned after Round 2.

Another example to illustrate this point is the Western Bulldogs.However, before we all go and load up on these players we must consider their opponents. The Blues have played the Tigers and the Suns ... the Pies have played the Port and North. Both the Blues and Pies were the hardest teams to score against last year, so this week’s game on Friday night is going to be an interesting case study on what to expect this year. If both sides still score well ... just go crazy on Blues and Pies players. However, it the players scores drop considerably, then we must re-evaluate the scores from Rounds 1 & 2 and expect players scores to peak and trough according to whether they play a poor or good side. 

Also, the sides with stronger midfields like the Pies, Blues, Doggies, Cats and Saints will dominate weaker sides like the Suns, Lions, Tigers, Port, North and the Eagles.The lesson to be learnt from all of this is that you need to index your players scores against who they have played. Swan and Gibbsy will not continue scoring at this level every week. If the Doggies example is anything to go by, expect a massive drop in Pies and Blues scores this week.

As mentioned in this week’s episode, the Suns disposal counts in their last 2 practice matches were the lowest ever recorded by Champion Data. The alarm bells were sounding then, but we all thought the injection of senior players like Ablett, Bock, Brennan, Harbrow, etc would have helped increase their numbers. But the average player scores reveal the practice match form followed through to the proper season.  

Harris 97/109 – if you do not have Harris, then he should be the first player you trade in. He will outscore most of the rookies and won’t need the time management, which could cost you missed games or lost time on ground.

Rischitelli 118/114 - continued his impressive 2010 form and should get his fair share of footy as teams concentrate tagging Ablett and Swallow. There were some encouraging signs with some of the Suns Players:

Zac Smith 81/84 – must have rookie ruckman

Trent McKenzie 76/67 – a very capable player who will not give the Suns any excuse to drop him. His bigger body size also an advantage.

Brandon Matera 64/64 – classy unit that is a must have in the forward line.

Gary Ablett Jnr 96/91 – encouraging because he will become a great acquisition once his price hits its bottom.

Another piece of advice ... if a potential captain choice is playing against the Suns, do not hesitate.

Designated Kickers

One of the best kept secrets was to try and find the backman who was getting on the end of the short passes from the kick-outs. A mark and a subsequent possession resulted in a double point scoring opportunity.

However, this year there is another little opportunity presenting itself. Players have dramatically increased playing on from the kick-ins. This kick therefore counts as a score. They are basically doing this to gain an extra 10 to 15 metres and the kicking long to penetrate the forward press/zone. We picked up on it with Deledio on Friday night and then focused on it throughout the weekend. Tapscott played on his first 5 kick-ins and had 8 in total over the game. That’s 24 free points. Yarran, H Shaw and Suckling were also doing it.

If you can figure out who the designated kicker is for each side, then selecting these type of players will be advantageous to producing a higher score.

Super Subs

The subs are killing all the coaches at the moment. But those coaches who are a smarter and can adapt quicker can use it to their advantage.

First of all, different teams will have different strategies on who they will use as substitute. You will need to keep tabs on each teams subs to see what pattern in emerging.

One obvious pattern is subs being used as a time management tool. This means younger players, those coming back from injuries or those who didn’t play much last year seem to be prime candidates for substitutes to ease them back in. A prime example is Libba. He has played 2 full games. They will be looking to give him a break soon in one of the following games. The Doggies are playing the Suns ... so the game result should be known early and they can give him a rest without affecting the result.

Another pattern is that no player will be subbed twice. They can not afford to have players miss that much game time.

Also look carefully at the team sheets presented on Thursday night. Players selected on the ground have normally (not always) been safe from being a substitute.
 

When In Doubt ... Downgrade

This is the time to drop a long-term injured or under-performing premium or bargain player for a performing rookie. This way you can bank the cash to be spent on upgrading a player.

When trying to decide who to offload, obviously look at players with high break-evens. However, if you believe this player still has great scoring potential, then there is no need to sell him just because he has started slowly. He might become very useful later on and it will just result in a waste of a trade.

We have a trading special article coming out soon ... however the following rookies would be my priorities ... Harris, Curnow, Liberatore, Heppell and Tapscott. These guys are performing so well that you might just have to make the room to bring them into your side.