Pies by 21 | Thebigtip

What am I looking forward to on Saturday?

A lot of things - the spit roast for lunch, beer, good company, possibly a nice windfall for picking the Norm Smith Medallist and, of course, a tight game going right down to the wire.

Will I get any of the above? Well, certainly...as far as the food, beer and company go. However, last year I went for Darren Milburn to be best on ground in the Grand Final. So my pick in that department is invariably as good as New Delhi's construction jobs - they don't hold up.

But will we get a tight game? Well, we all hope so. And as with most Grand Final Previews there is the never ending dissection of every player, statistic, match up, form guide, good omen, bad omen and historical match up as critics and supporters alike try to search for the answer to who will win footy's holy grail. But as a supporter of a team who missed out this year I can't seem to muster up the willpower to trawl through all the pros and cons, ticks and crosses, and so-called 'interesting facts.' You know the ones. Like, why Harry O'Brien's hairstyle has caused him to be less aerodynamic in critical situations, or why St Kilda have the edge over Collingwood in the interesting sounding surname department and hence, on these tidbits alone, will be why either the Pies or the Saints will get up. Please.

At the end of the day, folks, it comes down to a few key areas:

FORM

Possibly the most important factor heading into a big game. And I'm not talking about their form over 26 weeks. Geelong showed that trashing a fellow Top 4 team on the eve of the finals means about as much as pre-election promises after an election has been decided. So, we will only cast our minds back as far as 3 weeks.

Collingwood have been wonderful this finals series. Smashing the Bulldogs by 62 points and then following that up by belting the Cats senseless two weeks later. No need to mention the margin in that one, it was the equivalent of a 100-point win in the regular season game when considering it was a Preliminary Final and it was the Cats. So, in short, the Pies are 10/10 for form.

The Sainters, on the other hand, cannot shout from the rooftops at being so hot-to-trot. 'Beating' the Cats by 4 points and then following it up by playing one quarter of footy a fortnight later to overcome a Dogs outfit looking about as sorry as Joaquin Pheonix on Letterman in 2009 by only 24 points. The Dogs actually made the Saints chase the game for a half - which says more about the Saints than it does the Dogs. I give them a 5/10 for form - doing enough to get by.

THE MIDFIELD

It's amazing how many previews, especially in Finals matches, conclude with "if they win the midfield, they will be hard to top," or something to that effect. In every finals game the midfield wins the day. If the Saints allow Collingwood to get the ball forward quickly, the Pies will kick a big enough score to win. Similarly, if Collingwood allow Saint Nick and his merry men to have free reign in a decongested forward 50, they will pile on the points. 

I can't help but give Collingwood the edge in this department. The Saints battle very hard and certainly will get their share of the ball from stoppages. But when the ball hits the deck anywhere in the middle of the ground the Pies seem to swarm like bees to the hive. I actually caught myself counting their numbers a few times on Friday night as they seemed to always have an extra few players on the ground. Their work rate is superb and will see them win the midfield battle.

GOALKICKING

4 of the last 5 Grand Finals have been decided by goalkicking. Much has been made of Collingwood's errant kicking in front of goal but they seem to have come to terms with the fact that sometimes they will kick straight, sometimes they won't. St Kilda worry me more in this area. Nick Riewoldt has what I like to call "Anthony Rocca syndrome" or "Matthew Richardson syndrome" when it comes to goalkicking. Basically, he's so shagged through running to get his hands on the pill that when it comes to actually taking a breather and trying to kick for goal, I reckon he sees a blur of about 4 sets of goalposts as he tries desperately to maintain consciousness. Actually, come to think of it, it might be a similar case for Collingwood given their work rate. 

In the end trying to tip which team will kick straighter is like trying to pick your socks out of the laundry pile - you can be fairly certain, but you'll probably pick incorrectly. So while this is a big factor on Grand Final day, I'll have to go on ability and give both teams an even 5/10.

GRAND FINAL EXPERIENCE

Huge. I'm certain it was about 70-80% of why the Cats got up last year. For those interested, the rest was Matthew Scarlett's toe-poke. The Saints have a plethora of players with Grand Final experience while the Pies have only a few from 2002-03. Preparation, mental toughness and endeavour go a long way but when that first siren goes and the massive roar goes up, which team will stand up like the proverbial cucumber and be cool under pressure? My tip is with the Saints, who have the recent experience of bitter Grand Final defeat raw in the memory.

VERDICT

Here's the part where most experts are supposed to weigh up all the factors - all the hard facts and statistical evidence and come to a conclusion. One that invariably throws all that has been written straight out the window as they tip with their heart and not their head.

The Saints would be the 'heart' tip for many. The narrowly lost last year but were arguably the best team for 2009. Further, they only have one flag - way back in '66. And, most important of all, they aren't Collingwood. Thus, they are the default 'heart' tip.

The 'head' tip, however, is Collingwood. They are by far and away the best team for 2010 and therefore deserve the premiership - they showed exactly why on Friday night. Moreover, I expect them to win relatively comfortably. Not in a canter - only because the Saints have the best defensive work ethic to stem the Pies' flow, but comfortable as far as a Grand Final goes that involves Collingwood.

But as for the Norm Smith people, my best tip follows a 'pin the tail on the donkey' methodology. Get the full list of players, close your eyes, spin around a few times, point your finger, then cross them and hope for the best!

Pies by 21 points.