Mr Reliable Or Not?

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Mr Reliable Or Not?

By Footy Utopia on Thu, 07/04.2011

You are just so happy with the team you have picked!!!

You keep logging on just to look at your side and admire that super team you have selected. Just how did you manage to squeeze so many premiums in your side? With that many premiums, there is no way you are going to fail. And just how did you manage to get those bargain players so cheap? They are certainties to have a big year and fulfil their potential.

But have you looked carefully into the history of your players. Often they can reveal so much more than the pre-season form. The experienced coaches will tell you they already knew Daniel Kerr was going to throw that punch ... and they also know that in a short amount of time his body will surrender to some other soft tissue injury ... or even worse, he will be caught on the phone again bragging about the â€œhorse tranquiliserâ€ he took at last nightâ€™s party.

Taking the element of bad luck out of the discussion ... just who are the players you can really depend on this year? Who are the most solid picks? And who are the most risky?

Which premiums have been the most injured players over the last 5 years?

And is there a theme to be gained from observing the injury rates from the 2010 Top 30 Players from each position?

Defenders

The table below highlights the games played by last yearâ€™s top 30 defenders over the last 5 years. It ranks players from lowest percentage of games played to highest. These stats were only taken for H&A games.

Connors is on many coaches short list. But he has not even gone close to playing a full season. Sure he was finding his feet in 2007 and 2008. But he was also injured in some of that period, as he was in 2009. He had his breakout season last year, actually according to Champion Data he was the most improved player in the AFL averaging 52 more Champion Data points than in 2009. However, are you willing to spend the big bucks for a guy who has played 14 games tops in a season? Itâ€™s also suggested you find out whether he is attending his AA meetings ... no coach can afford another 7-week suspension for alcohol abuse and breaking curfew.

Another interesting point is that many people have been throwing up Broughton, Duffield and Harbrow in front of Grimes as more durable candidates. However, if you take out Grimes freak injury from 2008 where he lost the whole year, his games played rate is very similar to these players.

This table also reveals just how durable Gibbs, Enright, Rawlings, Lake, Gilbee, Fisher and Scotland are in this game. Bruce is the surprising player. He burnt me in 2007 when he did his collar bone ... and therefore has been an injury suspect player for mine. But the stats reveal the opposite.

However, durability is only one aspect of being Mr Reliable. The other important factor is how dependable is the playerâ€™s scoring productivity.

* Correction - Lake's DT Scores should read 100, 82, 73 ..... and Deledio'sDT Scores should read 86, 96, 97

When looking at the playersâ€™ average scores from the last 3 years they indicate that Gibbs, Enright, Deledio, Bruce, Scotland and Fisher are consistent scorers. Gilbee still scores strongly in Supercoach, however his 2008 Dreamteam season reflects why he has gone out of favour with most DT coaches. Lake has been a sure bet in SC, however in DT he has been a one year wonder. Are you prepared to pay a 100 point average price for a guy who normally scores 20 to 30 points less per year?

One other factor you must also consider is the age of these players. Scotland, Bruce and Rawlings are no spring chickens. Are they getting close to the Big Drop?

Rucks

Darren Jolly is the most reliable player out of all the rucks at 100% games played over the past 5 years, which is truly remarkable given the injuries that ruckmen can sustain.

Take note, after that only one other ruckman ranked in the top 15 last year played more than 90% of games over that period.

If you think that you can just take Sandilands and Cox with little coverage, chances are your will be trading later on to cover them.

Over their careers, Cox has been the most durable of the 2 ruckmen. Sandilands plays more minutes per game. He averaged 110 minutes per game the last 2 years â€“ thatâ€™s only 10 minutes rest per game. Cox averaged 94 minutes over the same period.

What does this mean? It means Sandilands is normally exhausted towards the end of the season. The Dockers normally look to give him at least a couple games rest in the later stage of the year. His numbers also tend to trend down towards the end of the year due to this reason.

Midfielders

Throughout the Footy Utopia shows and my articles I keep banging on about stacking your midfield. This next table from last yearâ€™s top 30 players will help illustrate my point.

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