The Ultimate Rd.20 Collingwood v Essendon Preview | Thebigtip

Round 20 kicks off on Friday night at the MCG with the clash between Collingwood and Essendon. On the surface, the game is a battle between 2 sides in totally contrasting form. Essendon was mauled by Carlton in Round 19 in a 10 goal to 1 final quarter, whilst Collingwood beat the reigning premiers by 22 points in a game not to dissimilar in feel to a final. Collingwood sits on top of the ladder, whilst Essendon is out of finals contention.

Nevertheless, from the point of view of a pies fan, this is no doubt a tricky assignment following the Round 19 game against Geelong which had such a big build up and was quite a bruising encounter.

It is also around this time of the year where upsets can occur. Of course it was Round 20 last year where the Bombers pulled off the upset of the year, beating the undefeated Saints by 2 points. So there is no doubt that Knights will be reminding his players of what they did exactly a year ago.

Collingwood’s focus must surely now go towards player management and finals preparation. Last year, Collingwood was in fantastic form at this stage, but was still fighting for a top 4 position. This meant that Malthouse did not have the luxury of resting key players, which in turn meant that many key players had injury concerns in finals. This year, Collingwood has the wins on the board, and Malthouse must surely be thinking about which players need a freshen up.

This perhaps presents an opportunity to Essendon, who have the chance to restore some confidence after such a disappointment last week. Essendon have had a number of Friday night games in a row, which is fantastic from a sponsorship point of view, but damning from the perspective that there is nowhere to hide. Consecutive losses to Carlton and Collingwood will not sit well with the Bomber faithful. I suppose however we have to realise that Essendon had a very impressive victory against St.Kilda only 2 weeks ago, and beat the Kangaroos the week before that. So their form over the last 3 weeks has not been too bad.

I am a bit surprised that Essendon’s season has turned so ugly, however the warning signs were there from late last year. If anything, making the finals heightened expectations from the club and its fans. Then losing Lloyd, Lucas, McPhee and Lovett meant that a huge wealth of experience left the team, and it was left to young kids to hold key positions.

After 7 wins in a row, Collingwood’s confidence could not be higher. They have all the big scalps as well, having beaten every side in the top 8. Many say that it is in Collingwood’s interest to actually drop a game before finals. I do not buy into this theory as I think it’s important to keep the momentum going. However I would not be overly concerned if the Magpies drop a game or 2. Especially if it means the Magpies remain 100% fit leading into finals with no major injury concerns.

Dane Swan must well and truly be the Brownlow medal favourite now. He had a slowish start to the year, but if he doesn’t poll in at least 6 of the last 7 games, then the umpires are not watching the game closely enough. He may not be the best player in the game, but he is the best right now. Alan Didak’s form has also gone a long way towards pushing the Magpies into top spot on the ladder. Importantly, he has stood up in big games this year.

Essendon will be wearing a special Guernsey this weekend with a seat-belt in the place of the usual red slash to acknowledge the 40 year celebration of seat belts. It’s a good cause and congratulations to David Hille this week who was brave in telling the story of the car accident he was involved in 1999 which saw 3 of his friends lose their lives.

RECENT HISTORY
The history between these 2 sides is very interesting. Collingwood has won the last 2 encounters, however it is very rare of late that either side wins both clashes in an individual year. Last year, it was Essendon who won an enthralling ANZAC Day clash, yet it was the Magpies who bounced back in Round 14 to win the follow up encounter. In 2008, the story was reversed with Collingwood winning ANZAC Day, but losing the secondary encounter by 48 points.

This year, it was Collingwood who won the ANZAC Day clash, so Essendon will be very keen to ensure history is repeated.

However, purely looking at the last 2 encounters, Collingwood has got the job done very easy. The margin was 65 points on ANZAC Day back in Round 5, whilst it was 35 points in Round 12 2009.

Travis Cloke has been a feature in both of these games, kicking 4 goals in each. Scott Pendlebury was the ANZAC Day medallist in Round 5 with 29 disposals whilst Didak was also very good with 27 (20 of which were kicks). Josh Fraser had perhaps his best game of the year with 3 goals, whilst Wellingham was my vote for best on ground with 26 disposals and 2 goals.

For Essendon, Stanton won plenty of the ball, with 34 touches, whilst Scott Gumbleton perhaps had his breakout game with 10 marks and 2 goals. Jobe Watson was prominent with 32 disposals.

Essendon’s running game has fallen apart against Collingwood in the last 2 battles. No doubt Collingwood will be looking to do much the same on Friday night.

TEAM & SELECTION NEWS

Essendon:

The Bombers have injury concerns and are far from full strength. One of the positives to come from this year was the introduction of Scott Gumbleton into the senior side. Unfortunately he is out for the year following the knock to the ribs he received against Brendon Goddard. This is a huge blow to the Bombers who are lacking a really good presence up forward. He is a hard worker and a good target.

Alwyn Davey will also sit out the rest of the year following the broken arm he received against Carlton last round. Davey also missed ANZAC Day earlier in the year. Other names out for the year include Pears, Danniher, Laycock, Lovett-Murray and Williams. Andrew Welsh is also struggling in his comeback from injury.

Having both Pears and Gumbleton out throws the young Bomber’s spine into disarray. It puts a lot of pressure on Hurley to hold a key position down back, and Neagle up forward.

Perhaps one of my greatest criticisms on Knights in 2010 (and this hasn’t always been his fault) is the fact that he has made far too many changes to his side week in and week out. Obviously he can’t control injuries, but I think there are young players on the list that need consistent footy. Or there are guys who are fighting for their careers that should be tested at AFL level. With 3 weeks to go and finals no longer an issue, it is a big chance to test out a number of players. They all need the next 3 weeks. You can’t judge a player based on 1 game. They need at least 2 to regain the tempo of the game.

Potential inclusions this week include Jetta, Myers, Melksham and Dyson. All have been in and out of the side this year, but should be given the last month to prove their worth. The other potential inclusion could be young tall Jake Carlisle. With no Gumbleton, this could be a good opportunity to expose him to senior footy early.

Collingwood:

Ben Reid hurt either his ankle or quad last week and is listed as a test on the injury list. Reality is that he will miss at least a fortnight. Hopefully for the Magpies he will be right for the finals because he has been a key component of the defence all year.

Otherwise, Reid is the only real injury concern for Collingwood. Wellingham brushed off his sore knee last week with an amazing performance against Geelong.

The question for Malthouse will be whether to rest players. I think Chris Dawes could do with a freshen up. He has had a big burden on his shoulders over the last month considering Cloke missed 2 games. He has been contributing, but not on the score-board. Leigh Brown may also deserve a rest over the next 2 weeks. I think Brown is the sort of player who responds well from a week off. He tends to come back angrier and fresher. On the other hand, Jolly and Wellingham tend to prefer consistent football with no breaks. Resting some talls also gives Malthouse the opportunity to allow Fraser to play his 200th game. That could be this round considering Josh was excellent on ANZAC Day. Luke Ball is another who should be rested before finals.

Malthouse will have to decide what to do in filling Ben Reid’s absence. The obvious replacement is Nathan Brown. On the surface this makes sense, but Brown is not really a like for like replacement for Reid. Reid is a Centre Half Back, whereas Brown is a Full Back who doesn’t win enough of the ball. Considering Prestigiacomo is also in the side, playing 2 full back’s is not ideal.

However, Collingwood would have David Hille in the back of their minds. Without Reid, there are no tall defenders to play on Hille who is no doubt going to spend a large chunk of time up forward. Nathan Brown would be the logical match-up.

On the other hand, I think Collingwood is already 1 tall defender too many. Goldsack and Maxwell were in great nick last week, and were able to step up in the absence of Reid. Maxwell did a fine job on Mooney. It could be an opportunity to bring back Medhurst who has been doing well in the VFL. Leigh Brown played Centre Half Back in 2009, so could swing back to mind Hille, whilst Medhurst slots in up forward.

Big decisions for Malthouse.

PLAYER NOTES:

Essendon

Must Stop: Jobe Watson

Collingwood was fantastic from the clearances against Geelong last week. They won this stat convincingly. So stopping Jobe Watson will go a long way to ensuring the Magpies midfield dominance continues. Jobe is perhaps not 100% fit at the moment but is playing on a lot of heart. In the past, when Essendon has beaten Collingwood, it has been Jobe Watson who has starred. His inside work is terrific.

It is a young midfield around Watson at the moment. Brent Stanton has moved across half back with McVeigh, whilst Prismall is out of form. Welsh is out. So a lot of the workload will be on Watson’s shoulders.

Collingwood is likely to use Luke Ball head to head against Watson. His main role will be to limit Watson’s influence, and therefore allow Swan and Pendlebury to win clearances. Both won 7 last week whilst Ball went head to head against Geelong’s premier clearance player Joel Selwood.

Courtney Dempsey – Despite 23 touches and 11 marks last week, Dempsey was perhaps one of Essendon’s worst players on the night. The reason is that he was responsible for large parts for Garlett who kicked 6 goals. Carlton really exploited Dempsey’s lack of defensive ability and tried to isolate his match-up. Dempsey has been dropped a number of times throughout the year, and this is the reason why. Despite his fantastic ability to provide run off half back, he is too easily beaten one on one. He pays his opponent very little respect.

This week, he’ll most likely have responsibility for guys like Davis, Sidebottom or Macaffer. If Collingwood is able to arrange these match-ups, then they will surely look to exploit it. It might be worth dropping Dempsey to allow him to work on his defensive skills at VFL, however his run off half back is far too important. Especially against Collingwood who are proving impossible to penetrate across half back.

So Dempsey is important. He kicked 2 goals on ANZAC Day and will really be the guy who needs to generate movement. However, if he fails to stop his direct opponent, then Collingwood are going to find goal-scoring very easy.

Jason Winderlich – He played last week with a heavily strapped hand which was broken recently. He is such an important player to the Bombers because he has such pace, he works so hard and takes the game on at every opportunity. In fact, I would argue he is one of Essendon’s most important players. The Bombers really lack drive when he is not there. I think he’ll get either Wellingham as opponent or Ben Johnson if the Magpies decide to do a tight tag.

David Hille – Hille escaped suspension, although I think it was ridiculous he was even cited for his knock on Robinson. Robinson clearly ran into Hille’s arm head first. Either way, he will be playing this week and perhaps presents Essendon’s greatest chance of winning against Collingwood. Hille and Ryder as a combination are one of the best going around, however they were beaten last weekend by Warnock. Hille will be required to play a lot of his footy up forward, but his best footy is played from the ruck where he pushes forward with such energy. He is very hard to stop. It is going to be an enthralling battle between he and Jolly as Jolly also looks to push forward hard. Both take big risks in doing this, so having a midfield which on top could be the key. If Essendon are to cause an upset, I believe it will be David Hille who was the large reason why.

Kyle Hardingham – He has been a bit of a revelation for the Bombers up forward in his first 3 games. He kicked 4 goals on debut against North Melbourne, and 2 goals 5 last week. If he cleans up his kicking for goal, he could become a real find for the Bombers. The beauty about him is that he has a huge leap and he takes the ball at its peak. This makes him very hard to defend against because he plays much taller than his actual height. The obvious match-up seems to be Tyson Goldsack who has the versatility to match him.

Travis Colyer – This guy really interests me. He is tiny but lightning quick. He also has good skills, however he is often moving too fast to be able to control the footy. He really fits into the Essendon game-plan and he is still a first year player so has plenty of development. Last week he operated at 62% efficiency, so his disposal needs to improve a bit. He is one to keep an eye on this Friday because he is going to get a fair share of the ball and his pace is eye-catching. I just think at times he could take a bit more time with the ball in hand.

Brent Prismall – He is copping it a bit this week after his game against Carlton. He had 19 possessions at a very low 47% efficiency rating. Some of his errors were simply shocking. It has surprised me to see Prismall struggle this year as his disposal was one of his greatest traits at Geelong. He did however have 11 tackles and kicked a goal, so he did try hard. He is another this year who has been in and out of the side. He will face the selection axe again this week, but I hope Knights gives him another go because I think he is just lacking confidence at the moment. His defensive side of the game is obviously in issue, which is why he was asked to tag Judd last week. He was beaten, but he did try hard. I think he needs to play the last 3 games of the year and try and build some form which will lead into a strong pre-season.

Angus Monfries – One of Essendon’s better players. Typically gets the job on Heath Shaw, but this may depend on whether Shaw plays defence or midfield. He is perhaps more likely to get Toovey or Maxwell this week, with O’Brien likely to get Jetta if he returns to the side.