I have no doubt that Collingwood versus Carlton is still the biggest rivalry in AFL football. ANZAC Day may be the biggest build up and the interstate derbies may be the most brutal, but the Collingwood v Carlton rivalry is the most traditional contest. The battle between these 2 sides has never relied on ladder position, nor has it relied on gimmicks or promotion. Without fail, this game will always draw a big crowd and the atmosphere will always be electric.

However, clashes over the last 15 years have counted for very little. Collingwood was not a contender towards the latter part of the 90’s, whilst Carlton was at its worst throughout the 2000’s. Thankfully, we are now at a stage where both the Magpies and the Blues are finals contenders, and victory carries even more weight.

For Carlton, a top 8 position is far from secure. It is fair to say Carlton’s form over the last 2 months has been very underwhelming. Commitment has been questioned, the coach has been tested and too much reliance has been placed on Chris Judd to dominate. Nevertheless, the Blues beat West Coast last week and a win in Perth is always tough. At half time, the Blues were in trouble, but an 11 goal to 3 second half ensured Carlton picked up the 4 points and held onto their top 8 position.

Though Carlton’s first half was very poor, the Blues will be hoping that they carry the same form in which they finished off the match into this week’s game. It could serve as the catalyst to regain touch and march on into September. However, there are still big question marks over the Carlton side. Again it took Chris Judd to fire to kick his team into gear. The forward line is still not 100% settled, and defensively the Blues have been very sloppy over the last 2 months. All these questions will be asked this week against Collingwood.

The Magpies on the other hand are flying. Last week’s game against Richmond was a danger game in my eyes. However, the Magpies of 2010 demonstrated their improvement by dispensing of a lesser opposition emphatically. In the past, it was games against lowly ranked opponents which troubled the Pies. In 2010, Collingwood is getting the job done. This was particularly pleasing as it was a tough ask to back up from the hard fought win over the Saints in Round 16.

Many commentators have expressed views on why the Magpies have improved in 2010. Yes the additions of Jolly and Ball have had an impact, as has the continued development of younger players. However, the biggest improvement at Collingwood has been the consistent level of intensity, which has remained at a high level since Round 1. In the past, Collingwood’s intensity has fluctuated. For a team that relies so heavily on turnovers and defensive pressure, even a 5% drop in effort is very telling. In 2010, Collingwood’s pressure has been phenomenal. There has hardly been a side which has penetrated Collingwood’s defensive structures with ease, and turnovers have well and truly become the number 1 avenue to goal.

If Collingwood retains this level of intensity going into finals, they genuinely have to be considered a premiership threat.

Collingwood host the Blues at the MCG this Saturday afternoon. Collingwood will now play the remainder of its games at the MCG, which is a huge bonus considering the current debate about the Etihad Stadium turf.

RECENT HISTORY

Collingwood have won the previous 2 encounters between these 2 sides, however it was Carlton who won the previous 3.

The last clash was in Round 6, where the Magpies ran out emphatic 53 point winners in a high scoring contest. The win came despite Chris Judd picking up 37 disposals and Setanta O’Hailpin kicking 5 goals.

For Collingwood, it was an even and efficient team effort which earnt the victory. Carlton had plenty of the ball, and did well from the stoppages (43 clearances to 42). Gibbs and Murphy each had over 30 disposals as well. However, Collingwood’s pressure was far too strong and many of Carlton’s possession resulted in turnovers. Chris Judd was everywhere, but his efficiency with the ball was well down. Collingwood successfully cramped his space and limited his effectiveness. His clearance work however was very good. He had 11 and at one stage looked as if he would swing the game in Carlton’s favour.

For Collingwood, Swan, Pendlebury and Wellingham were the major possession winners, whilst Dawes, Medhurst and Ball each kicked 3. Cloke was a powerful target, taking 12 marks and kicking 2 goals.

From this game, Mick Malthouse would gain the confidence that the Magpies can score heavily against Carlton and can disrupt their ball use. Brett Ratten on the other hand would feel his side managed to also win plenty of the ball and can match the Magpies through the middle, but it needs to be able to contain Collingwood’s scoring more effectively. Carlton did make a charge at Collingwood at the start of the 3rd quarter, but it was short lived. Collingwood was clearly the better side over the 4 quarters.

AT THE SELECTION TABLE

I doubt there will be massive selection news at Carlton. There may be a doubt over Dennis Armfield who was rushed to hospital during last week’s match following a clash with Ashton Hams. He has been cleared of any damage, but may not pull up for the match. It could be Mitch Robinson who replaces him after he was named in the best in the VFL. Either that or Steven Browne to do a defensive role.

Sam Jacobs was also good in the VFL, but Ratten may elect to give the Warnock/Hampson combination another chance.

On the other hand, there are major selection dilemmas for Malthouse. Cloke and Heath Shaw should be ready to return to the side, but finding room is the issue. Macaffer and Goldsack are the 2 on the fringe, but both have been very good over the past fortnight. Malthouse has already said Cloke is no guarantee to slot straight back into the side.

I’m at a loss. It’s impossible to drop anyone based on form at the moment. Perhaps Shaw can slot back into the side in the place of Blair. Shaw’s last game was played on a wing so he may continue to play in this position.

Then there is the issue of Paul Medhurst who was Collingwood’s best in the VFL last weekend. Josh Fraser seems a long way off from playing his 200th game.

This is all positive news for Collingwood, but it will be crucial Malthouse finds the correct balance come September.

TEAM NEWS AND TACTICS - Carlton

The Skipper

You can’t preview a Carlton game without taking a look at Chris Judd. As I said earlier, he was dominant in the 2nd half last week, and won plenty of the ball when these 2 sides last met. It will be interesting to see how Collingwood approach Judd this week. The trend from other sides over the last month has been to go head to head against Judd, and tag Kade Simpson.

Judd’s 2010 has been somewhat different to what I have seen from him in the past. I never considered him as a massive possession winner like a Buckley, Voss or Hird. I considered him more a burst player who tore games up in 5 minute patches. It’s why I’ve never considered him a real Dream Team option. This year, he has become a 4 quarter performer and is winning more of the ball than ever. However, I think his effectiveness is down. His disposal efficiency in 2010 is operating at 67%. Teams are really targeting him, and unfortunately the other Carlton midfielders have done little to help their captain.

So will Collingwood put Ben Johnson onto him to tight tag him, or will they go with someone more like Dale Thomas to try and play head to head on him? I would go with Ben Johnson. He has done the job in the past, and he also has the ability to win the ball.

He is still going to get 30 possessions, but I don’t think Collingwood should risk allowing him so much of the ball because he seemingly hit his best form last week.  I also think Luke Ball should mind him a lot closer in the centre clearances. Something tells me Chris Judd is about take his game to the next level in the lead up to September, so I think it would be very risky to let him run loose.

Eddie Betts and his partners in Crime

Betts is perhaps the most important component of the Carlton forward line. He leads the clubs goal-kicking by a fair margin with 37. Carlton’s best chance this week is to get their small forwards into the game. They were largely quiet in the Round 6 encounter. Eddie Betts is the leader of the pack and Carlton look so much better when he is kicking goals.

In the absence of Fevola, Carlton has turned to its small forwards to create havoc. Yarran and Garlett are having very good seasons. It is credit to them because there weren’t too many experts who believed that 3 small indigenous forwards could work. But the truth is that Yarran and Betts have the capacity to play through the middle, and all serve different purposes.

Garlett has really become one of the real danger players in the Carlton side. He kicked 3 goals last week, and has generally held his head high throughout some of the crushing losses of the past month.

Again, the match-ups from a Collingwood perspective will be crucial. I would love to put Johnson on Betts after his dominant performance on Milne, but I already have him ear-marked for Judd.

-          I think Harry O’Brien gets Betts as is the norm.

-          Toovey plays on Yarran because Yarran is the quickest.

-          Then Goldsack gets the opportunity to prove his versatility and play on Garlett who plays a more traditional forward role.

The Blues not only need 6 or more goals from their small forwards, but they also need a stack of defensive pressure. O’Brien, Toovey and Goldsack have all been pivotal over the last month in creating run off half back.

Other Player Notes:

Kade Simpson – Simpson has been Carlton’s most improved player on 2010. He has always been a dangerous and hard running winger, but his consistency and impact on games has seen him become one of the targeted players in the Blues midfield. However, his form over the last month has diminished as sides have elected to tag him over Chris Judd. Against Sydney, he only had 13 possessions, and he only managed 19 against the Bulldogs. He was back to his best last week with 33 disposals. Carlton are going to have to generate a lot of run against the Magpies to break open the zone. Simpson is going to be a key

Potential Matchup: Sharrod Wellingham – I would use Wellingham fairly defensively against Simpson. He is typically a good ball user and poses a real threat. Wellingham has the pace and the ability to hurt Simpson going the other way.

Jordan Russell - At the half way point of the season, Russell was touted as a potential All Australian candidate. Unfortunately, the second half of the year has been less productive. I mention Russell in this preview because he will get a job on a dangerous Collingwood small. However, he is still prone to the odd turnover, so Collingwood will be sure to target him when he has the ball. Russell needs a good game. He’ll become particularly important if Armfield does not pull up, as he may be required to do a tight defensive job on a Davis or Sidebottom.

Potential Matchup: Steele Sidebottom – This match-up could work both ways. Russell may be required to keep Steele under wraps, but on the other hand Sidebottom will be used to monitor Russell and put a lot of pressure on him with the ball.

Paul Bower – He is more important to the Carlton team than many give him credit for. In Round 6, he had 31 disposals and 11 marks across half back. However, his true value is as a Centre Half Back who plays on the best forwards. The Blues need strong defenders, and they have missed Bower throughout parts of this year.

Potential Matchup: Chris Dawes – Jamison will probably play on Cloke, which leaves Bower to move onto Dawes. It will be a tough match-up for Dawes who perhaps does not possess the agility of Bower or the speed. Bower is also pretty good in a marking contest.

Bryce Gibbs/Marc Murphy – Statistically, these 2 are having decent years. But I think they have both failed to take the next step and become genuine A graders of the competition. Perhaps they are not ready. Gibbs in particular has often been asked to either tag or play across half back in defensive roles. Murphy had a limited pre-season and took a while to hit his straps. Either way, the Blues need more from their other midfielders and need to take the heat off Judd. In Round 6, both these guys had plenty of the ball, yet I thought they were largely ineffective. It was a bad sign for Carlton to lose so heavily despite the fact they had all their midfielders in the game and they had a forward kicking goals. This is a big game, and it is the type of challenge where players can make a name from themselves. Murphy and Gibbs have to stand up. They are both coming off reasonable games against West Coast.

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