The Who and Why for Rd.16 | Thebigtip

We all know that anything can happen on the day. But there is safety in knowing what is most likely to happen. Here is a look at Round 16 2010 and what we can expect.

Friday 16th July 8:40pm (AEST).

Adelaide vs. Geelong.

AAMI stadium, Adelaide. Telecast: Channel 7

Adelaide seem to have returned to their hot form of 2009 and many are claiming they're now finals contenders. Looking at their track record though, Adelaide haven't beaten any good quality teams except for Fremantle. Adelaide didn't notch up their first win until Round 7 when they took on Richmond. Since then they've beaten the Brisbane Lions, Fremantle Dockers, Melbourne Demons, Essendon Bombers and West Coast Eagles bringing their yearly tally to 6 wins, 9 losses. Out of the 6 teams they've beaten, 5 make up the bottom 5 of the ladder and the only other team is Fremantle who seem to have hit a poor patch in form. Beating bottom ladder teams isn't anything to get excited about, especially when you're taking on a team like Geelong.

Geelong will be merciless against the poor skills of Adelaide. The Cats have only lost 3 games this seasons to Fremantle, Carlton and St Kilda, and were missing key players in all 3 of those games. Geelong even managed to beat the red-hot Hawthorn without Cam Mooney and Steve Johnson. No more need be said, Geelong should thrash Adelaide even though this game is at AAMI stadium .

Saturday 17th July 2:10pm.

Collingwood vs. St Kilda.

MCG, Melbourne.

Coming off a hard fought win, the Pies will be keen and eager to take on the Saints, who they haven't beaten in 2 years. Collingwood's form this season has been impressive and they seemed to have survived a recent lack in form, thanks to having slightly easier teams to play. Their real struggle in form seemed most pronounced in the fourth quarter against the Western Bulldogs in Round 11. Despite winning that game (although they probably would have lost if the game was 10 minutes longer), Collingwood's form seemed severely lacking at times over that 5 week period with losses to Geelong and Brisbane, a draw to the Demons and, as mentioned, a shaky last quarter against the Bulldogs. Collingwood were most fortunate to be playing West Coast at Etihad Stadium, where they had a major confidence boost. Collingwood's form against Port Adelaide was stripped bare in the first quarter, but to the credit of the Magpies, they fought hard and used the strong wind to their advantage to ultimately win the game. However, Port
Adelaide and West Coast aren't hard teams to beat, and both have been playing poorly for most of this season.

St Kilda on the other hand, despite 3 losses during a time of adjustment to playing without Riewoldt, have not given us any evidence that they're likely to lose against the young Magpie side. The St Kilda midfield and their defensive structures have tired the Collingwood players in their past games. In the last few times they've met, Collingwood have been able to contend with the Saint for 2-3 quarters, but run out of legs toward the end. This is due to St Kilda adopting the soccer tactic of 'owning possession'. St Kilda maintains the ball so frequently, they are able to psych out their opponents regardless of what is on the scoreboard. They've only been beaten by teams who have players that are so quick the Saints defenders can't make them accountable. However, Collingwood isn't a super quick team. The real determining factor of the game will be played out in the midfield. The larger bodies of Dal Santo, Hayes, Jones and Montagna will really test the smaller bodies of Pendlebury, Thomas and Beams, although S
wan won't be phased by the size difference.

Although the Collingwood faithful claim it was poor kicking that lost them the last game, it was evident their inaccuracy was as a result of the Saints pressure, and we should see a similar result this week with the Saints getting up in a really close game. Saints by 11

Saturday 17th July - 2:10pm.

Hawthorn vs. Brisbane Lions

Aurora Stadium, Tasmania. Telecast: Fox Sports

After a shock loss to the Cats on Saturday the Hawks will be desperate to get back to their winning ways, and they shouldn't face too great an opposition in the Brisbane Lions. With Jonathon Brown still in doubt, and Fev left to do all the goal kicking, the Lions haven't been able to make the scorebaord reflect the hard work they've been doing in the midfield. Despite Travis Johnstone's return to form, he hasn't found consistent support from players like Rich and Power, so Black and Johnstone end up doing most of the work in the middle, with the occasional support of Rischitelli. What was most telling was Brisbane's game against the Saints - it seemed that the Lions threw everything at the Saints. Black had 29 touches, Rischitelli 27, Rich 25 and Power 24. In their best form this should have produced a win for the Lions, but even when all four cylinders of their midfield fire, they still don't have that extra body up forward to kick to and create goal opportunities.