Round 20 Punter Preview - pick the upset | Thebigtip

Round 19 was a great one for betting, with five of the eight contests considered near enough to flip-of-a-coin affairs in the lead-up by Betfair punters, and some somewhat surprising results ensued.

A week later, and round 20 appears a polar opposite: the Brisbane v Adelaide encounter aside, there are seven clear favourites.  Will this reflect how we look back on the round come Monday?

Here’s our view on the betting in the upcoming round of matches…

7.60 ESSENDON v COLLINGWOOD 1.14
The old adage suggests that matches between the likes of Essendon and Collingwood should never be treated as fait accompli.  With that in mind, the 7.60 head-to-head appears value.  But logic would suggest that you couldn’t sensibly pot the ‘Pies, who haven’t been beaten since an 8 point loss at the ‘Gabba in round 10.  The 1.92 on offer on Collingwood winning by 40 points and over on Betfair looks very tasty.

1.36 CARLTON v RICHMOND 3.75
Carlton is a better side than Richmond at the minute – and should win accordingly – but that price might be too short for the inconsistent Blues.  Lay them pre-play at the shorts and hope for an in-play drift producing a profitable prospect to trade.

1.63 FREMANTLE v SYDNEY 2.58
Freo’s record at Subi this year is very strong, having lost only to the powerful Saints and ‘Pies.  Moreover, Sydney’s record in the west is ordinary: just two single-figure-point victories in its last ten matches.  The hole Aaron Sandilands leaves in Freo’s outfit is even more sizeable than his hefty frame, however; they were thumped by North last week, and; you always have to be game to oppose Sydney.

2.54 WESTERN BULLDOGS v GEELONG 1.51
On paper, the match of the round.  The Cats have lost just one of their past six against the Dogs, but that one was in the corresponding fixture last week.  Naturally, Geelong is a worthy favourite but the Bullies seem to be hitting their straps and the 2.54 represents great value accordingly.  The last three games between the teams have been decided by less than 15 points, so either team under 15.5 points at 3.30 in Betfair’s Tri Bet market makes appeal.

Is this the game to use your $50 risk free bet? You stand to WIN $165 - you can't lose. Click the link for more details.

1.40 PORT ADELAIDE v WEST COAST 3.40
Given that it’s impossible to tell what either of these teams will serve up week to week, you’d be brave to invest heavily either way.  Definitely a game for betting mid-game in Betfair’s revolutionary in-play market.

1.98 BRISBANE v ADELAIDE 1.91
Ditto the Port/West Coast match.

1.71 HAWTHORN v MELBOURNE 2.54
With a strong recent record against Melbourne, one is hard-pressed to go against Hawthorn.  That said, winning form is good form and that is something the Dees have over the Hawks.  Is the 1.44 on Hawthorn and the 3.45 on Melbourne in Betfair’s Top 8 market an indication of the likely result?

4.40 NORTH MELBOURNE v ST KILDA 1.26
According to punters, the St Kilda is the good thing of the round.  Having defeated the Kangaroos by 105 points in round 2, it’s hard to disagree.  North has much to play for and have proven no easybeat under Brad Scott, and did knock the Saints off in round 21 last year.  The 1.92 about the Saints at the 23.5 point line does look handsome.

Join Betfair now for your $50 risk free bet?