AFL Finals Preview and Seedings: Part 2 (Positions 5-8) | Thebigtip

To read the first half of this complete finals preview, please click here

Below is the continuation of my complete finals preview, with the bottom 4 seeded teams now the focus. History has told us that you need the double chance to win the flag under the current finals setup. However, I truly believe that if the cards all drop in Hawthorn’s favour, they too are a real chance to go all the way. This is where I pick up my discussion.


5th Seed: Hawthorn

Win-Loss-Draw: 12-9-1; Ladder Position 7

For the sake of continuing the tennis theme, Hawthorn is the Andy Roddick of my finals ranking system. They definitely have the big aces, however it’s the all court game which worries me.

Their top 10 players are as good as any side in the competition (if not better), yet there are still some massive holes on the list. These include the lack of a quality ruckman and a tall defender to play on the giants. They also probably lack a shut down tagger.

Regardless, on their day they can crush anybody, and they have a good record against the top 4 sides. In 2010, they have beaten Collingwood and Western Bulldogs, drawn with St.Kilda and got within a kick of Geelong. The scary thing about Hawthorn is they have no fear of any side and they have the experience in finals to intimidate the other lower ranked teams.

Hawthorn’s season obviously started badly, slumping to 1 win and 6 losses. Then they turned it around by winning the next 7 games. They then stumbled again, only winning 1 of their next 5, before coming home strongly with 3 solid wins. Their inconsistent form has cost them a home final, which means they have the headache of having to travel to Perth in the first week of the finals.

There is no doubt Hawthorn has the star-power, but it lacks depth in its top 22. The reason the Hawks have been inconsistent this year is that when it loses a few key players, they really struggle to keep up with a lot of decent sides. At full strength the Hawks can beat anyone in September, but anything short will see the Hawks beaten. Fortunately for Hawthorn’s sake, they enter the finals series fully fit. Luke Hodge’s knee should not be a hindrance, and he should return to the side this week. Since embracing a high rotation policy, it seems as though the Hawks have managed soft tissue injuries better. Guys like Franklin and Brown have had troublesome years at the tribunal, but they are available when it counts.


The defence is an issue. They still miss Trent Croad who could match it with the bigger body forwards. However, Josh Gibson will be important as he is a good option to play on the quicker lead-up talls. Stratton has also had a big impact on the side in his first year, playing 20 solid games. In particular, having Gibson back has meant Hodge can play more in the midfield. Other guys like Gilham and Murphy have held their own in the second half of the year as well. It is a no-name defence, however if the star-studded midfield can get on top, then the Hawks get back to cover well. Nevertheless, it is the obvious weakness in the Hawthorn list.

Pre-season, the ruck division was also highlighted. Renouf has had a massive workload all year but has held up well. The addition of Wayde Skipper has not set the world on fire, but it has steadied the ship. Skipper reminds me a bit of Leigh Brown in the sense that he is slightly undersized to ruck, but can play a number of roles for the club and is quite versatile for his size. The ruck division will get a massive test first up against Aaron Sandilands.


For all the analysis of Hawthorn, it all comes down to the midfield and the ability to get it quickly to Buddy Franklin up forward. The names are mouth-watering...Hodge, Mitchell, Burgoyne, Bateman, Lewis, Rioli and Sewell. Burgoyne in particular has really begun to make his presence felt late in the year which is perfect timing because they paid a high price for him. If the midfield is on top, then the Hawks still possess the best power forward in the competition. Franklin is a man who loves finals and has already proven himself on the big stage.


Ultimately, the Hawks have a tough draw. If they manage to beat Freo, they will have to play the loser of Geelong v St.Kilda. Then they are likely to face Collingwood in the preliminary. It is hard to see Hawthorn winning all these games, but they are capable.

They would not fear the trip west either. They faced Fremantle only 2 weeks ago and won by over 100 points. Yes Fremantle were short 10 of their best players, but the scars may still remain. Further, Fremantle are the only side in the top 8 with no finals experience and no culture of winning finals. They will also be missing some big names through injury. So Hawthorn is a huge chance to win first up.

From there on, anything can happen. They enter the finals in as good form as any side in the competition, and are the only side to have beaten Collingwood in their last encounter. Write them off at your own peril. However, I think the lack of depth in their top 22 and the tough draw will eventually claim their scalp.


The Main Man for Finals: Lance Franklin

I’m sorry for the obvious call but you can’t go past him. I agree that if the midfield doesn’t fire, then Hawthorn is no chance, however they rely so heavily on Franklin to kick their goals. He single handedly kept Hawthorn in the game against Collingwood, kicking 6 goals, and he kicked 62 for the year despite only playing 17 games.

With Roughead struggling for form, Rioli playing more in the midfield, and a distinct lack of a mid-sized forward to kick 2 goals a game, Franklin is the main target and he is where all the attention will be focussed.

The Hawks on occasion were able to lower their eyes against Collingwood and pick loose players on their half forward line. This is because the Collingwood defenders peeled off their opponents to cover for Franklin. This is going to be important in the finals series as every side that face Hawthorn will be sending 2 or 3 defenders onto Buddy. So if they can find other avenues to goal, then it releases the pressure on Franklin and also increases the opportunity give him a chance one out with a defender.