What Were You Thinking?

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What Were You Thinking?

By Footy Utopia on Thu, 07/04.2011

It seems that this year a lot of teams have set up without Dane Swan and have chosen to roll the dice and pick him up after Collingwood's first bye which is in Round 7 .

(48% of DT coaches and 52% of SC coaches do not have Swan.)

The Great Dane has been snubbed by many coaches in favour for Scotty Pendlebury.

The Snub Drivers:

1. Pendles was going to have a stand out year and hence increase in value while you could use the money saved more efficiently elsewhere

2. Swanâ€™s starting price being so high would mean that the only way his price would go is south hence being able to pick him up at a later date for a discounted price

While the Snub Drivers do make sense, I feel that there are some other factors that where missed by coaches.

The Missed Factors:

1. Consideration of the Collingwood draw for season 2011

2. What is a League win worth to you?

3. Do you start without the best DT/SC Player of 2010?

So let me give you my view of why you should have selected Swan at the start of the season

1. Consideration of the Collingwood draw for season 2011

Donâ€™t get me wrong, my initial view was to start without Dane Swan ... and then I viewed who the PIES where going to play rounds 1 to 3.

Rd 1 Port Adelaide

His whipping boys. Swan in round 10 of 2009 helped himself to 48 touches at the MCG. Why would this year be any different with a poorer Port side?

Rd 2 North Melbourne

Finished outside the top 8 and did not show much during the preseason, in addition Swan picked up a lazy 123 DT / 127 SC in their 2010 clash.

Rd 3 Carlton

While Carrazzo did the job on Swan for about the first 5 minutes of the round 6 clash, in 2010 against the Blues he averaged 127 DT/133 SC

After these teams the Pies play against Richmond, Essendon and the Western Bulldogs. There is every chance he is worth more by round 7.

2. What is a League win worth to you?

This year with so many teams sharing the same player do you really want to face up against an opponent that has Dane Swan as a difference? And as captain? I think NOT!!!

Remember the league season lasts 15 games and you will need 8 wins to make the top eight assuming youâ€™re playing in a league with a descent ranking. If you went 0-3, you would need to win 8 of your next 12 and thatâ€™s a tough ask.

3. Do you start without the best DT/SC Player of 2010?

The simple answer to this is NO. He is a LOCK.

So the reality is this, he will not reduce in price due to the favourable draw and your opposition have got a massive difference player against you in the early rounds. And if you pick up another loss your season could be GAME OVER.

So, the million dollar question is ... do you bring him in this week with a breakeven of 79 DT/ 190 SC?