Winning In The Run - Your Guide To An Easy Profit | Thebigtip

After the roughies dominated Golden Slipper day, I thought it would be a good idea to point punters into a simple way of finding value when your having a down Saturday. It just so happens that if you have a little bit of cash left by Saturday night, you might be able to get out. Just keep your phone handy.

In 2011, TV sport fans are bombarded by betting information and in the AFL competition lies an opportunity for punters to beat the bookies: by betting in the run.

There are few sports where momentum is everything; tennis comes to mind and so does AFL. In Tennis, you have never lost the match until your opponent wins that last point and so a massive momentum swing can change the game. The massive part mental strength plays in the game means that three break points saved can turn a game on it's head.

AFL might be the football code with the longest minutes played. Sure, an NFL game goes for longer but it is only 15 minutes x 4 quarters of football plus A LOT of ads. An AFL match is 4 x 20 minute quarters - shorter than a game of soccer but in reality, stoppages mean the players are working towards contests and around the ground for 30 minutes a quarter and that makes the native game incredibly long. It is this part of the game - the fact it takes 120 minutes to decide a winner - that makes it the perfect game to bet in the run.

Momentum swings in AFL are massive. Already in 16 games of football in 2011, we've seen Geelong (Round 1), Fremantle (Round 1), Adelaide (Round 1), Sydney (Round 2) and Hawthorn (Round 2) overturn significant second term deficits to come away winners.

There is so much money to be made when this is the case. The people who work the odds during the game are far too reactive in the early parts of the match and for this reason, a lot of value is on offer for punters. The five teams mentioned above were all considered genuine chances in the games they went on to to win and so there should be no excuse for not taking the great value on offer when a team with a chance has a slow start.

When Hawthorn trailed Melbourne by 27 points in the middle part of the second term, they had eased from $1.47 pre-match favourites to $2.75 - they went onto to win the match by just under 50 points. By the middle part of an extraordinary third quarter, the Hawks had the game under their control and were going to win a match they were expected to. It is quite unbelievable to think that a team can firm from $1.47 to $1.30, ease to $2.75 and firm again into under $1.30 by three quarter time.

In reality, all five teams to have come from behind after lagging in the second term were overpriced when they were down. The Hawks should have been no more than $2.20 when they trailed by 27, Sydney - who were equal $1.91 pre-match favourites and have a record of overrunning teams who get an early jump on them - should not have been more than $2.60 when Essendon led them by 28 in Q2 but chances are you would have got odds closer to $4.00 against the James Hird-led Essendon.

The point is, if the bookies are going to place so much emphasis on what has happened in the first quarter and a half then they are wrong to do so and punters can capitalise. What a punter needs to do is identify the games that could go either way and look to get on when a team that is down by 15 to 30 points in the second quarter begins to swing the game in their favour. In fact, if you're really bold, you could predict the right time to get on and take advantage of the significant overs before the momentum turns.

When 30 per cent of matches in 2011 have been won by teams that start slowly and the bookies are declaring the winner before half time, a big win can be had by all.

So don't be disappointed if you don't back the Derby winner on Saturday, just watch the footy closely on Saturday night, have a phone nearby and get on when the time is right. But remember, if a four goal margin can be breached and the game is in the second quarter, you won't need to take out a mortgage to capitalise on the very good chance of a comeback.