Round 6 WNBL Preview | Thebigtip

This round has the potential to be the best round of WNBL action this season. We have the two undefeated teams (Sydney and Townsville) squaring off and also the two winless teams (AIS and West Coast) squaring off. There’s also some huge matches in terms of ladder position and the second installment of Bulleen vs Dandenong to round off a massive round of basketball.

Friday night: AIS vs West Coast @ AIS Training Hall
This match promises to be a scrappy one between the two worst teams in the WNBL this season. Both teams have an inability to defend with AIS conceding 83 points on average while West Coast concedes 91 on average. Having said that, the West Coast Waves have more experience on the board and surely, they won’t be the first team to lose to the AIS.

Key Matchup (Olivia Thompson vs Rohanee Cox)
Both girls are the great hopes for their respective sides. Thompson has had a remarkably consistent year averaging 11.6 points and 7.6 rebounds per game and she’s definitely stepped up in the absence of Tessa Lavey and Mikhaela Donnelly. As for Rohanee Cox, she averages 14.5 points and 9 rebounds per game and she’s the only West Coast player that actually appears to be performing to expectation. These two going at it on Friday night will be entertaining but I suspect Cox will be far too strong

The Final Word
Bottom two teams in the league don’t promise to be a thriller. In this particular game West Coast will go in as clear favourites over the young AIS but what the AIS have shown this year is that they have heart despite some beltings. If they can put together a four quarter performance, the AIS could very well roll the Waves but somehow you get the feeling that it isn’t going to occur

West Coast by 13 points

Friday night: Bendigo vs Canberra @ Bendigo Stadium (To be replayed on ABC1 at 1pm on Saturday 12 November)
When the start of season predictions were done, both teams were heavily tipped to play finals but coming into this game, both teams are under severe pressure. Canberra have fallen to 1-6 and a loss here could make their chances of making finals difficult while Bendigo are 2-4 and a loss here would really make my predictions of Grand Final for them a complete and utter mockery.

Key Matchup (Gabrielle Richards vs Marianna Tolo)
Richards is having a really good year for Bendigo averaging 13 points and 8 rebounds per game while Tolo averages 12.1 points and 10.9 rebounds per game mixed with 3.1 blocks per game. Both have been consistent in this regard and this duel holds the key to the game. Whichever girl gets on top here will probably lead their team to victory and really it’s a tough one to call but I’m tipping Tolo to edge this duel.

The Final Word
Both teams have performed well below expectation and right now Bendigo are dealing with the absence of Kristi Harrower with an Achilles injury. Harrower’s loss has really impacted with Tess Madgen struggling however in Deanna Smith, Bendigo have someone of experience capable of stepping up. As for Canberra well the wheels haven’t quite fallen off but they don’t seem to have the same quality as they have in previous seasons. Carly Wilson hasn’t gotten going and nor has Jessica Bibby and those two are going to hold the key. Nicole Hunt is the wildcard. If she can look after the ball and direct play, Bendigo may struggle. It’s a tough one to call but gut feeling says the home side have to win one without Harrower sooner or later

Bendigo by 2 points

Saturday Afternoon: Adelaide vs Dandenong @ Adelaide Arena
If it wasn’t for the Victorian Derby on Sunday and the top of the table shootout on Saturday night, this game would probably be match of the round. Adelaide sit in 4^th at 5-2 while Dandenong are 5^th at 5-2 and there’s battles all over the court that are worth watching.

Key Matchup (Suzy Batkovic vs Krista Phillips)
For the second consecutive game, Suzy Batkovic is going to come up against a player that actually has size and can potentially match her, this time taking on Krista Phillips. Batkovic averages 21.4 points and 10.4 boards per game to Phillips’ 12 points and 6.3 boards. Batkovic has clear experience while Phillips is still learning Dandenong’s offense though she had a superb 22 point game last week against Canberra in her battle with Marianna Tolo. If I had to pick a winner of this duel I’d go Batkovic as not only does Phillips have to contend with her but also with ex Dandenong player Abby Bishop.

The Final Word
Adelaide’s tall timber again rates a mention as Dandenong’s Krista Phillips has to contend with both Suzy Batkovic and Abby Bishop. The sense I get is both girls will try to force Phillips to concede fouls and put pressure on her foul count which will then give both players a license to dominate. Having said that, the backcourt battle between Angela Marino/Jenni Screen and Kathleen McLeod/Jenna O’Hea will also be one worth watching. I’m thinking the home team will rebound from last week’s loss to Bulleen but I wouldn’t be too surprised if an upset occurred here

Adelaide by 6 points

Saturday night: Townsville vs Sydney @ Townsville RSL Stadium
This is the one we’ve all been waiting for. Townsville and Sydney have both astonished this season with their unbeaten starts (Townsville more so) and both teams have players that are capable of really tearing a game apart. This has the potential to be a real thriller as will be seen from the key matchup

Key Matchup (Shanavia Dowdell/Jess Foley vs Amy Denson/Belinda Snell)
What an absolute ripper of a matchup this promises to be. Dowdell and Foley have kept Townsville unbeaten almost single handedly while Denson and Snell have done likewise with help from Alicia Poto. Here are the relevant stats per game

Dowdell – 17.8 points and 7.8 rebounds
Foley – 16.2 points and 6 rebounds

Denson – 21.2 points at 52% from the field and 7.7 rebounds
Snell – 17 points, 7.2 rebounds and 6.7 assists

When looking at these stats you’d give the edge to the Sydney girls

The Final Word
What a cracker this game promises to be. Looking at the two teams it’s kinda confusing to see them both at 6-0 but when you look at the individual stats of the stars, you can easily see why. Both teams have been classy this year but in this game there can only be one winner and one team will be going home with a loss. At RSL Stadium, this promises to be an unforgettable game of basketball but I’m going to go with the upset (if it could be called one)

Sydney by 4 points

Sunday Afternoon: Canberra vs West Coast @ AIS Arena
Both teams will be backing up from big matches on Friday night against Bendigo and AIS respectively. How both teams recover from those games will help determine how this game will play. It won’t be the prettiest or most high standard game in the round but it will be one where grit and determination will get a team over the line

Key Matchup (Melissa Marsh vs Nicole Hunt)
I’ve decided to go for the battle of the backcourt between Marsh and Hunt as the key matchup of the match. Nicole Hunt has been horribly inconsistent for Canberra though she is showing signs of getting her ball handling under control despite still averaging 4 turnovers a game to go with 11 points and 3.6 assists. As for Marsh, she averages 15 points and 2.8 assists per game and came off an awful game last week scoring just 5 points. I’m still not convinced about Nicole Hunt’s composure under pressure and as such would have to say that Marsh will win this particular duel.

The Final Word
Both teams will need to have the appropriate recovery from their match on Friday night. Having a look at the fixtures, it could be argued that West Coast have the easier game, thus having easier recovery as a result. With that in mind based on recovery you could tip West Coast however I think that it’s about time that Canberra begun to click as a side and if Rohanee Cox fails to fire, it could get very messy for the Waves. It’s hard to pick a winner as they’re both as bad as each other but Canberra has a better defense than West Coast and that should see them over the line

Canberra by 12 points

Sunday Evening: Bulleen vs Dandenong @ Veneto Club
It was only 2 weeks ago that we were dissecting one of the greatest single quarter comebacks as Bulleen came from 13 down to knock off Dandenong and now both teams square off for the rematch at the Veneto Club in the second match of the Michelle Timms Cup

Key Matchup (Sam Richards vs Kathleen McLeod)
Wow! That’s probably the only word that needs to be used to sum this battle up. Both back court generals and both have had really good seasons to date. Richards averages 13.6 points and 5 assists per game to McLeod’s 19.3 points and 7.5 assists and both have been the calming influence for their respective sides. Both are capable of ripping up the opposition and I reckon both will definitely come out even as they’ll rely on their respective teammates to stop the other

The Final Word
There is a rather unusual quirk in the draw in that Bulleen have yet to actually hop on a plane and leave Victoria. Dandenong unfortunately are in a situation where they’re coming off a match the previous day against Adelaide and to then back up against Tom Maher’s Bulleen, is definitely going to be a tough to impossible ask. Last week Adelaide defeated Bendigo and then backed up the next day against Bulleen and struggled and I expect Dandenong will do the same (play Adelaide and then back up against Bulleen and struggle). Bulleen have all the advantages here and look too strong for Dandenong and will extend their winning streak to 13 games against the Rangers

Bulleen by 12 points

Well that ends the round preview and my goodness; I’m thoroughly excited about this round. Every match in this round has something riding on it and I’m expecting this round to be the best rounf of basketball yet.

Stay tuned for the review which will hopefully be done before I start working at the Presidents Cup golf