Round 7 WNBL Preview | Thebigtip

A third of the way through the WNBL Season and such is the domination of the top 4, they are the only teams in the league to hold winning records. This weekend we have the ACT Derby played in Albury and some vital matches for teams in the middle of the ladder not to mention the thrilling Sunday game of 4th vs 3rd.

With all that in mind, let’s look at the weekend’s games

Friday night: Sydney vs Logan @ SUSAC
Logan are newly fresh having come off a Round 6 bye while Sydney have continued their astonishing start to the season with a thrilling come from behind win against then undefeated Townsville Fire. Sydney has their big 3 firing consistently and the big question is; Do Logan have the firepower to stop them?

Key Matchup: Cayla Francis vs Amy Denson
This matchup was highlighted when these two teams last played and yet again I’m going to highlight it. Amy Denson was voted as the WNBL Player of the Month for October and it’s hard to see why when she’s averaging 20.3 points and 8.3 rebounds per game. Cayla Francis has improved a long way from last season acquiring more consistency but she’s going to have to play out of her skin to limit the damage that Denson can inflict on a game

Final Word
Logan hasn’t played since Round 5 and should be nicely rested for this encounter. While a bye can work to a team’s advantage it can also count against them in that they come out very rusty and against Sydney, that could be a recipe for disaster. Sydney’s big 3 (Amy Denson, Belinda Snell and Alicia Poto) are firing this season and for Logan to have any chance whatsoever, they  must limit the damage of all 3. Can they do it? It’s not beyond the realm of possibilities but realistically they will struggle. Olaf Lange will have Logan playing hard but I just think they don’t have enough to stop Sydney
Sydney by 12 points

Friday night: Canberra vs AIS @ Lauren Jackson Sports Centre, Albury
Canberra have only just come back onto the winners list while the AIS are copping their routine floggings. The first ACT Derby of the season played at a newly named stadium in recognition of the best women’s basketballer that area has produced promises to be a blowout but stranger things have happened

Key Matchup: Olivia Thompson vs Marianna Tolo
Tough, tough matchup this one. Thompson has been the most consistent AIS player this season however she’s got a real tough ask against a rapidly improving Tolo. Tolo started the season slowly but has now gotten her act together and she’s quite capable of shouldering a heavy load especially with Natalie Porter not playing for Canberra this weekend. I for one look forward to this duel with great interest but Tolo should easily win it through greater experience

Final Word
Canberra have had a very slow start to the season with only 2 wins from their first 9 after being tipped as likely finalists in the pre-season (by yours truly). They are under the pump to live up to that and this match presents the perfect opportunity for them to start building some momentum. As for the AIS, injuries have decimated them but besides some bad quarters and sometimes matches, they have been reasonably competitive. I don’t expect that to change here, just like I don’t expect them to break their drought
Canberra by 28 points

Friday night: Dandenong vs Townsville @ Dandenong Basketball Stadium (Replayed on ABC1 at 1pm on Saturday 19/11)
What a game this promises to be? Having a look at Townsville’s recent form not to mention the potential that Dandenong have despite sitting at 4-4 and this game could almost fit into the blockbuster category. It promises to be some game and there’s no doubt whatsoever that both teams will be up for it and I look forward to attending and watching the girls put on a show

Key Matchup: Krista Phillips vs Shanavia Dowdell
Dowdell has been outstanding this season for Townsville while Phillips is a bit hit and miss depending on how she continues to adjust to the Dandenong offense. That said, Phillips had a brilliant game last week and tried her heart out against Bulleen’s Elizabeth Cambage and I expect her to be able to do the same here against Dowdell. If Phillips gets on top here, it could be a very tough night for Townsville

Final Word
This is Townsville’s first trip to Victoria this season and it’s a really testing one indeed. Dandenong at Dandenong are no easy beats and both teams have the capability of serving up some superb basketball. Townsville will be looking to get back on the winners list following their loss to Sydney last week while Dandenong will want to recover quickly from the twin heartbreaks of losing to Adelaide by 2 and Bulleen by 6 in OT. Promises to be a thriller and I look forward to attending the game in person after an intense day at the Presidents Cup and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the home team claim the win after an intense game
Dandenong by 4 points.

Friday night: West Coast vs Bulleen @ WA Basketball Centre
Bulleen have hit top form following their thrilling 6 point OT win over Dandenong last week while West Coast broke their losing streak against the AIS only to cop a 35 point thrashing two days later against Canberra. This actually is Bulleen’s first travel out of Victoria all season which is a bizarre quirk in the draw so it’ll be interesting to see how they go

Key Matchup: Rohanee Cox vs Elizabeth Cambage
After a slow start to the season, both girls have really fired up averaging some impressive numbers. Cox averages 15.3 points and 8.8 rebounds per game while Cambage averages 19.7 points and 8.2 rebounds per game so in terms of stats, besides a couple of points, both are relatively even. Both girls are capable of doing it inside and outside though Cambage does have a massive height advantage over Cox so Cox will need to take Liz outside and then beat her on pace or draw a foul to frustrate her. Cambage is likely to have a field night though unless coach Tom Maher places her on the bench for any great length of time.

Final Word
This has the real potential to get ugly. Bulleen are capable of scoring points in a hurry while West Coast has an inability to defend with any surety. Last time the two teams met, West Coast conceded 104 points in a shootout with Bulleen. If they go gung ho again, it’s going to get ugly and now that Cambage is beginning to really hit top form, it could turn into a massacre similar to the one that Canberra dished out to West Coast last week (beating them by 35 points). West Coast realistically could cause an upset but it’s as likely as Port Adelaide winning the flag next year (less than zero).
Bulleen by 25 points

Saturday night: Bendigo vs Townsville @ Bendigo Stadium
Massive game this, really big indeed. Townsville will be coming off a game the previous night against Dandenong while Bendigo simply needs a win to keep up with the battle for 5th spot. It has the promise to be another thriller as well.

Key Matchup: Deanna Smith vs Jess Foley
This could be a duel and a half, this one. In recent weeks, Deanna Smith has really stepped up for Bendigo and she averages 14.7 points and 5.3 rebounds per game. Meanwhile Jess Foley averages 15.9 points and 6.4 boards per game in what has been one of her most consistent seasons in the WNBL. Both girls are in form and both are capable of wrecking havoc if given the chance so the question really is; which one can defend the other better? That will go a long way towards answering who’ll win this particular duel which could impact heavily on the game

Final Word
Townsville are backing up for their second game in 2 days and there’s no knowing how they’ll pull up. Chances are they could be coming off a bruising encounter which will definitely leave them feeling sore and vulnerable to a Bendigo team that are looking to get their season back on track. Townsville could potentially push themselves into a vulnerable territory if they lose this game so I expect them to come out all guns blazing but I think Bendigo will consign them to another defeat as fatigue takes hold
Bendigo by 6 points

Sunday afternoon: Adelaide vs Bulleen @ Starplex, Gawler
This is match of the round by far. It’s 4th vs 3rd in a game that’s going to have a huge impact on the final ladder placings. Last time they met, Bulleen embarrassed Adelaide and they have a chance to claim the season split which is important come finals time so expect them to come out firing.

Key Matchup: Suzy Batkovic vs Elizabeth Cambage
This is the best matchup you’ll be likely to see in the WNBL. The experienced pro against the young star in a battle over 4 quarters and 40 minutes. Suzy Batkovic is coming off a 38 point game against Dandenong and it could be argued she single handedly led Adelaide to that win while Cambage has recovered from her early season issues and will be more than ready for this encounter.

Final Word
Last time they met, Bulleen’s defense gave Adelaide a real hiding besides the last quarter when they had the game all but won. In front of their home court this week, Adelaide will be seeking retribution and will have the likes of Suzy Batkovic, Abby Bishop and Angela Marino fired up for this one. That said, Bulleen will be coming off a relatively comfortable game on Friday night so they’ll definitely be ready for this one. With Cambage hitting top form and Rachel Jarry in career best form, Bulleen I believe are slight favourites to topple Adelaide and claim the series split
Bulleen by 4 points

So ends the preview of Round 7 of the WNBL