WNBL January Review | Thebigtip

January has been a very tough month for me with health issues (conjunctivitis) not to mention my ability to spend all my weekends partying and the like. This has affected my ability to post weekly previews and reviews. I will be providing all the results in January, ladder, player of the year leaderboard and a special on the battle for the 5.

Round 12
Canberra 72 def Sydney 66
Bulleen 92 def Townsville 75
Adelaide 80 def Townsville 68
AIS 53 lost to Sydney 62
Logan 76 def Dandneong 71
West Coast 48 lost to Bendigo 82

Round 13
Sydney 71 def by Bulleen 80
Bendigo 84 def Dandenong 77
Townsville 82 def AIS 60
West Coast 51 def by Adelaide 84
Dandenong 75 def West Coast 56
Canberra 70 def by Bendigo 71
Logan 91 def AIS 53

Round 14
Canberra 59 def by Logan 72
Adelaide 70 def Bendigo 54
Townsville 70 def Sydney 57
AIS 58 def by Bulleen 103
Dandenong 81 def Adelaide 61
West Coast 64 def Bendigo 62
Logan 71 def Sydney 69

Round 15
Sydney 97 def Canberra 68
Logan 52 lost to Adelaide 63
Bulleen 56 def by Bendigo 74
Townsville 61 def by Adelaide 64
AIS 36 def by Dandenong 94

With all those results, the ladder stands as follows

Adelaide 16-3
Bulleen 12-5
Townsville 12-8
Logan 10-7
Bendigo 11-8
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Dandenong 11-8
Sydney 11-8
Canberra 7-12
West Coast 2-16
AIS 1-18

The Player of the Year award is also getting towards the business end of the year and despite missing 3 games in a row, Adelaide’s Suzy Batkovic still comfortably leads however it’s really between her and Cambage for the title.

46 – Suzy Batkovic (Adelaide)
36 – Elizabeth Cambage (Bulleen)
34 – Shanavia Dowdell (Townsville)
32 – Belinda Snell (Sydney)
31 – Marianna Tolo (Canberra)
30 – Cayla Francis (Logan)

The Battle for the top 5

This will have to go down as one of the greatest battles for the top 5 in the history of the WNBL. It’s a 5 way battle for the last 3 spots between Townsville, Logan, Bendigo, Dandenong and Sydney and there are many twists and turns to be had in the run home. If teams are tied at the end of the season their head to head record will decide who finishes higher. I’ve had a go at projecting results based on what happens if a team wins a certain number of games

Townsville
Record – 12-8 (3^rd)

Head to head against others – Logan (3-0), Bendigo (1-1 but Bendigo have better margin), Dandenong (0-2), Sydney (2-1)

Run home – Bulleen (H), Canberra (H)

Thoughts – Townsville have got a very comfortable run home playing their last 2 matches at the Townsville RSL Stadium. Bulleen is no easy task however they play Canberra coming off a week bye which does give them a massive advantage. That said; the scenario is simple for Townsville.

Win both – They finish 3^rd
Split them – They may still finish 3^rd but could slip depending on other results
Lose both – In real trouble and would have to rely on head to head records to sneak into the 5

Predicted Finish – 13-9 (5^th)

Logan
Record – 10-7 (4^th)

Head to head against others – Townsville (0-3), Bendigo (1-0 still to play second), Dandenong (2-0), Sydney (2-1)

Run home – Canberra (A), Bulleen (H), AIS (H), Bendigo (A), Bulleen (A)

Thoughts – A very demanding run home for Logan and looking on paper I can see only one guaranteed win against the AIS. The rest of the games look 50-50 at best and playing Bulleen twice in the run home is a tough, tough ask. Logan have been inconsistent all season and really, they could either sneak in somehow or they could miss out badly. The scenario is pretty simple for them

Win 5 – They finish 3^rd no questions asked
Win 4 – They finish 3^rd-4^th
Win 3 – They finish 3^rd – 6^th depending on other results
Win 2 – They finish 5^th – 6^th depending on other results
Win 1 – They finish 6^th-7^th depending on other results
Win 0 – They finish 7^th

Predicted Finish – 12-10 (6^th)

Bendigo
Record – 11-8 (5^th)

Head to head against other teams – Townsville (1-1 but win on margin), Logan (0-1 still to play second), Dandenong (2-1). Sydney (0-1 still to play second)

Run home – Adelaide (H), Sydney (H), Logan (H)

Thoughts – Bendigo have been astonishingly inconsistent this season as they can defeat the likes of Bulleen, yet slip to a loss against West Coast. The real advantage here is that they have 3 home games to finish off the season and that should come in handy. It’s a run home against all teams fighting it out for the finals so every match is a 6 pointer so to speak. The scenario for Bendigo however is simple

Win 3 – They finish 3^rd-5^th
Win 2 – They finish 3^rd-6^th
Win 1 – They finish 5^th-6^th
Win 0 – They finish 7^th

Predicted Finish – 13-9 (3^rd)

Dandenong
Record – 11-8 (6^th)

Head to head against other teams – Townsville (2-0), Logan (0-2), Bendigo (1-2), Sydney (1-0 still to play second)

Run Home – Sydney (A), West Coast (H), Adelaide (A)

Thoughts – Dandenong have hit some good form over the past 2 weeks taking care of both the top and bottom sides (Adelaide and AIS respectively). They’ve been hit and miss but coach Mark Wright has taken on a new level of intensity which the girls are responding to. It’s not an easy run home by any stretch but if Dandenong can maintain form, there’s no reason why they can’t play finals again. The scenario for Dandenong is simple

Win 3 – They finish 3^rd-5^th
Win 2 – They finish 4^th – 7^th
Win 1 – They finish 5^th – 7^th
Win 0 – They finish 6^th - 7^th

Sydney
Record – 11-8 (7^th)

Head to head against other teams – Townsville (1-2), Logan (1-2), Bendigo (1-0 still to play second), Dandenong (0-1 still to play second)

Run Home – Dandenong (H), Bendigo (A), West Coast (H)

Thoughts – After their blistering start to the season, Sydney have fallen away quite dramatically. Injuries have played a massive part with Snell affected and Afeaki out for the season with a knee. Form has also been a real concern with a noted drop from the likes of Poto, Snell and Denson. They may still perform well but not to the standards they set when they were undefeated. Sydney have been brave but I don’t think they have enough about them to finish off the season in the finals. The scenario for Sydney is rather simple though

Win 3 – They finish 3^rd – 5^th
Win 2 – They finish 4^th – 6^th
Win 1 – They finish 5^th – 7^th
Win 0 – They finish 7^th

Predicted finish – 12-10 (7^th)

So ends the January review and I hope everyone enjoys the read on one of the best battles for finals ever.