Inception: Week 1 A-League Preview | Thebigtip

As I type, there’s less than 36 hours left until the launch of the 6^th season of the A-League. This preview is going to be a regular item, published the day before the first match of the week. Of course, being so early this week means that I’m flying by the seat of my pants to some extent.

Before I get started, a couple of housekeeping matters. All the writers for the site have their personal pages now, so if you click on my avatar (which is just to the right of the title), you’ll be redirected to my page. Either bookmark that and check back every so often for my latest article, or follow me on Twitter (twitter.com/rickm18) where I’ll tweet my latest offering as soon as it runs on the main page. Whether you like Twitter or not, learn to love it, cause it’s the best thing going.

Alright, now that I’ve crossed another thing off my to-do list in a column (incorporating a Ric Flair quote), on with the preview:

Melbourne Heart v Central Coast

Date: Thursday 5^th August

Time: 7:30pm EST

Location: AAMI Park

Centrebet Odds:

Melbourne: $2.20

Draw: $3.30

Central Coast: $3.30

It all kicks off with the new boys at the new stadium against the travelling Mariners. The Mariners have been a bit of an unknown in the pre-season as there haven’t been many news stories about them while they adjust to life under new manager Graham Arnold. The Heart on the other hand has had the lion’s share of the media over the winter as they assembled their quality squad. The thing is though, even as a Victory supporter I tried to remain neutral to them – I’m even heading down to AAMI Park tomorrow night to watch the game. But then, they released this ... ‘thing’ that’s apparently going to be their song. Now there’s a part of me that hopes they never win a game so I’m never exposed to the song.

Onto squad news for the Mariners, and there’s word going around that new recruit Josh Rose might not have his international clearance by the time the match gets underway tomorrow night. That’s a big blow as he’d be their starting left back by the longest possible way, even considering Bojic in the squad. Apart from that possible loss, it seems like there’s no other problems in terms of selection, which means we’ll be seeing the A-League debut of highly rated Argentine Patricio Perez.

As for the Heart, they’ve confirmed that Aloisi will be missing as he works his way back to full fitness. Personally that’s disappointing as I was looking forward to chanting, ‘you got the wrong Aloisi’ the first time he turned the ball over. Alas, not to be though and his absence will potentially free up a spot for one of the younger strikers.  There are a few options, and I might be good – but I’m not good enough to know who’s going to start in place of him.

Onto the match itself, I can’t see it being anything other than a scrappy contest. The weather forecast for tomorrow is for showers and heavy wind, so that will come into it as well during the night. With the Heart’s new squad and the Mariners’ new manager, both teams will take a while to find their feet. Ultimately I think the Heart will just prevail though.

Tip: Melbourne Heart (1-0)

Value Bet: Total Goals (0-1) @ $2.80

Adelaide United v Newcastle Jets

Date: Friday 6^th August

Time: 8:00pm EST

Location: Hindmarsh Stadium

Centrebet Odds

Adelaide: $2.30

Draw: $3.25

Newcastle: $2.90

The wooden spooners kick off their season at home against Michael Bridges and the Newcastle Jets on Friday night in the second match of the round. The main point I’m interested in is how new manager Rini Coolen is directing the team to play. I’m borderline praying that it’s more attacking then the ‘style’ Vidmar used to churn out – but then again, anything that isn’t will just be 11 players sitting in their defensive box for the whole 90 minutes.

Having said that though, I can’t see too many goals in this one as both sides tread cautiously to begin with. After Adelaide’s horror home record last season, there’s no way I can see them losing their home opener, which means they’ll be a bit more circumspect going forward – and that’s perfectly understandable for Friday.

Newcastle on the other hand have had a better pre-season compared to Season 5, when they had to deal with the drama of Gary Van Egmond leaving to take up a coaching job at the AIS. Hopefully that leads to a more consistent campaign this time as there’s not a new manager chopping and changing throughout to try and find his best combinations.

Ultimately though, I think Newcastle will be cautious as well, which will lead to a drawn game.

Tip: Draw (0-0)

Value Bet: Total Goals (0-1): $2.65

Perth Glory v North Queensland Fury

Date: Friday 6^th August

Time: 10pm EST

Location: NIB Stadium

Centrebet Odds

Perth:  $1.55

Draw: $3.75

North Queensland: $5.75

At first glance this seems like the easiest pick of the round. However, I’ve been looking into it a bit more and it’s not as clear-cut as you would think. For Perth, Andy Todd and Victor Sikora are out injured, while Chris Coyne is going to be out on loan in China until January. Add that to the rumours that Michael Baird and Josh Mitchell won’t have their international clearances in time, and that’s potentially almost half their starting XI out of the match on Friday night.

The Fury on the other hand has reportedly shown some impressive pre-season form under new manager Frantisek Straka. Apparently their defence has also been impressive, but with only news reports to go by, I’m still trying to figure out if that’s in relation to last season, or in relation to ... you know, a good defence.

Of course, it would be remiss of me not to mention the subplot of Fowler playing against his old club for the first time. It would have been a lot more interesting if this was being played in Townsville, as it stands in Perth I can’t see anything too noteworthy coming out of the story. However, if he gets the benefit of a questionable decision in front of the F-Troop, that could change things.

Ultimately, I think the match could be decided in the first quarter of an hour. If the Fury can withstand the pressure from the Glory and their fans, I think they’ll be great chances to hold out for a draw, or maybe even pinch one on the counter. Taking that into account, and also because my tipping competition is judged by betting odds, I’m tipping a draw.

Tip: Draw (1-1)

Value Bet: North Queensland or Draw (Double Chance): $2.30

Sydney FC v Melbourne Victory

Date: Saturday 7^th August

Time: 8:00pm EST

Location: Sydney Football Stadium

Centrebet Odds

Sydney: $1.97

Draw: $3.30

Melbourne: $3.65

It’s the big one, and more importantly it means that after Saturday night I won’t have to see any more vision of Muscat thumping the ball into the post. Hopefully.

If I had to pick the team that’s had the best pre-season, I’d take Sydney every time. It’s purely based on the quality of opposition they’ve been able to play, and how it’s given them the chance to test multiple line-ups against a quality of opposition that they won’t see at all in the A-League.  Having said that though, I still don’t think Lavicka has settled on his most preferred line-up, so it’ll be interesting to see what he puts out on the park on Saturday night.

For Melbourne, I’m willing to say the starting XI is going to give a big insight into how their season is going to unfold. If Merrick attempts to play Hernandez up front – it’s going to be a disaster. From what’s available, Kruse has to start up front with Mate, and hopefully one of Broxham and Brebner starting in the midfield. It’s been proven that both of them starting doesn’t work, so with a bit of luck it won’t happen again.

The match will most likely start off slow, as I can’t see either team willing to go behind early. The longer the match goes, the more it will open up though and eventually I think it will be Melbourne’s lack of goal scoring power that will cost them a result.

Tip: Sydney (2-1)

Value Bet: First Half Result = Draw: $2.10

Gold Coast United v Brisbane Roar

Date: Sunday 8^th August

Time: 3:00pm EST

Location: Skilled Park

Centrebet Odds

Gold Coast: $2.00

Draw: $3.35

Brisbane: $3.50

The last match of the round is also the only game being played on a Sunday. It’s a far cry from those epic triple-header Sundays that were being played at points of last season.

I miss the lead-up to last season when Gold Coast were claiming they’d go undefeated, that they’d run roughshod over the league. Certainly made for a more exciting pre-season then this incarnation. This time though they’ve been more circumspect; possibly because they’ve realised they don’t have a squad capable of winning the league.

Brisbane on the other hand is in complete rebuilding mode with Postecoglou attempting to mould the squad under his image. I have to commend him on managing to rid the dressing room of all the reported cliques that were floating around and damaging the side. There’s some powerful personalities he’s managed to have the final say over, and now he can get on with the real business of winning matches.

They’ve signed a host of new recruits, but I’m most excited about watching Jean Carlos Solorzano play. He’s had a few problems in getting down to Brisbane, but now that he’s there (and hopefully taking the park on Sunday, otherwise I’ll be disappointed) he should be able to light up the field. If he clicks alongside Reinaldo, and then possibly with Barbarouses floating around somewhere behind, it suddenly looks like a dangerous strike force.

As for Gold Coast, they’d want to make the most of Smeltz being available, as I can’t see him staying too long before another overseas club comes knocking ... firstly you’d hope that said club would inquire whether Smeltz would stay there for longer than five days though. One player who will step up is Joel Porter. He had an interrupted first season, but I think it’s his time to step up and provide what he’s capable of.

I can see lots of goals in this match. In the end though, Gold Coast should just edge the Roar out.

Tip: Gold Coast (3-2)

Value Bet: Over 3.5 goals: $3.85

That’s the end of the preview for the first week. Got differing views and tips? Leave them in the comment box below and I’ll be sure to reply.