Why QLD will win Origin 1 | Thebigtip

Unless you've been soul searching in a cave in the outback or just avoiding all media transmissions for the last 5 years, you would be well across the fact that the Queensland State of Origin team are gunning for a record sixth straight series win. Everything (arrows, darts, fingers and anything else pointy) is aiming in the direction that it is a mere formality that it will happen. Lets look at the match ups and see how they stack up. 

The last line: QLD - Billy Slater, Origin games 14, versus NSW - Josh Dugan, Origin games 0.

Resident NRL freak and poster boy for brick walls, Billy Slater v Dancing Queen Josh Dugan. Expect Slater to take the points in this little tale of two ends. Slater has been outstanding this year. A ready made, Born to play Origin star, He creates, he sets up but more importantly HE STOPS TRIES. Even when he has had the proverbial kicked out of him, he never looks beaten. Origin all over. 

Josh Dugan on the other hand is going to find the pressure of a wave of maroon jerseys too much to bare. Canberra have looked pretty ordinary in defence this year and although Dugan is hardly to blame, i think it will be telling. Expect Dugan to do plenty of passing to his wingmen to avoid the heat but won't be able to do so for 80 minutes. The deep end can be a cruel mistress for some but an awakening for others. I expect Dugan to be crying over his i-phone about 11 pm.

The Ballerinas: QLD - Darius Boyd, Origin games 8, Jahral Yow Yeh Origin games 0 versus NSW - Akuila Uate, Origin games 0, Brett Morris Origin games 3.

Wayne Bennett's shadow Boyd and Yow Yeh should be far too good for Hopscotch Morris and WHO? Morris has under performed at Origin level and unlike some of his back end colleagues, gets another chance to make an imprint. What he lacks in defensive skills, he makes up for in speed, but being slippery wont be enough on the night. A brick wall impersination would do better on the night. Hopefully for the Blues, Uate might be the X-factor inside the white line. Speed and strength is his natural game so he shouldn't feel over-awed by the occasion. 

Boyd, a proven try scorer at every level from  behind the palm beach shelter sheds to International level, say no more. Can run, defend and do the insane. Yow Yeh is proving to be a glossy finisher that Mr Sheen would be proud of. Should revell on big stage and home patch.

The Twinkle toes: QLD - Dane Neilsen, Origin games 0, Willie Tonga, origin games 3 versus NSW - Michael Jennings, Origin games 3, Mark Gasnier, Origin games 9.

The closest battle of the night. Inglis Mach 2 Neilsen and Super glue Tonga against Latte King Gasnier and The classy Jennings.

Tight battle between this Mob. NSW may have a slight edge here. The"Gaz" is a true Origin performer and his prodigal return could cause the Maroons to chew some panadols at half time. Although Jennings has been tried and tested and hasn't set the stadiums on fire, he has the capacity to flick the devastation switch. Neilson has been superb this season and has rightly earnt his spot as a fill in. Could be a master stroke or a complete failure for the selectors. Mr Fix-it Tonga is a question mark. Hasn't had a glittering origin career but obviously  "Big Mal" knows what he is capable of.

Party central: QLD - Darren Lockyer, Origin games 34, Jonathan Thurston, Origin games 15 versus NSW - Mitchell Pearce, Origin games 3, Jamie Soward, Origin games 0.

The place where all the action is will be ruled by Show and go Thurston and Grandpa Lockyer. When Lockyer gets out of his wheelchair and Thurston hops on to the turf, expect Pearce and quiet achiever Soward to start rattling with fear. Soward and Pearce, although an untried combination, could be good for each other but the magic maroon duo will have thier heads spinning. I expect Pearce to be saying "no Thurston, NOOOOO" in his sleep after the game.

The Cannonballs: QLD - Petero Civoniceva, Origin games 26, Matt Scott, Origin games 5 versus NSW - Jason KIng, Origin games 1, Kade Snowden, Origin games 1.

Gentle giant Civoneciva and Frankenstein Scott will be too menacing for the Blue front row. Although we know that B.Scott and The Snowman won't get out of the way, they should because they are going to be hurting post game. Civoneciva, who doesnt know when to quit and incumbent front row guru Scott will turn the feild into a horror movie set if they have their way.

Working girls: QLD - Cameron Smith, Origin games 20 versus NSW - Michael Ennis, Origin games 4.

Caped crusader Smith against Serial pest Ennis is a no brainer. And I don't mean Ennis. Smith's skill, hardness and knowledge will pants his opposite. Although Ennis has as much mongrel as a un-fed jack russell, he doesn't have the ball quality and will be taught a lesson yet again by Smith.

Workaholics annonymous: QLD - Nate Myles, Origin games 10, Sam Thaiday, Origin games 9 versus NSW Greg Bird, Origin games 5, Beau Scott, Origin games 2.

The tried and true combination of The walking forehead Myles and Slammin' Sam will just have the edge in this battle. The Animal Bird and B.S have plenty of stink between them and ball playing ability but I expect the Maroon 2 to make more damaging yardage.

The Deadbolts: QLD - Ashley Harrison, Origin games 5 versus NSW - Paul Gallon, Origin games 8.

Loose cannon Gallen could easily tear Workhorse Harrison a new back split with his bare hands but I expect Harrison to do what he usually does. Fly under the radar and quietly hurt his opposition. I also expect Gallen to do what he usually does. Give the referee tonsilitis from blowing the whistle . Harrison to take the chocolates.

Dressing gown wearers: QLD - Cooper Cronk, Ben Hannant, Jacob Lillyman and Corey Parker versus NSW - Ben Creagh, Tim Mannah, Dean Young and Trent Merrin.

Far from chair warmers on the QLD side. Cranky Cronk would destroy NSW on his own if he could get a game. Drop Bear Hannant can give more impact than a sledgehammer, Lillyman is the gift that just keeps giving and Corey "Sweets" Parker is in career best form.

On the other side, not so much confidence. The Spanner Mannah is in unusual choice as is Merrin. Young may provide impact as he should have been playing Origin years ago and Creagh gets another chance. All in all, Queensland's sideline stars are superior performers than their opposing chair warmers.

So that said, Queensland to go 1 up in the series by plenty plus a little more.