Ratmail - Racing Tips & Analysis, 10th July 2010. | Thebigtip

G’day punters!

Welcome to this week’s edition of Ratmail. I’ve managed to find us a couple of good shorties, as well as some good hopefuls at long odds this week, as we travel to Flemington, Eagle Farm and the almighty Newmarket in England! Last week we had some very solid results so let’s take a look...

THE REVIEW

We got off to a bit of an unlucky start I thought. Exciting young stayer Black And Bent got beaten narrowly by race leader Niptious at long odds on a fairly ‘leaderish’ track. Unfortunately for connections and punters alike, he injured himself after a Monday workout and won’t be competing this weekend in the series final; nor will he return for at least 12 months. If he comes back bigger and better, we could have a new superstar on our hands (if he isn’t already!). Ghostmilk managed to string a few together to get the bickies for us, going away for an easy win. She looked a class beyond the mares in that grade. She’ll back up this weekend in the Winter Championship Series Final and if she can go on with it, she might come out a spring horse.

Across the border it was Illuminates getting the job done nicely to expand the kitty for us. She was heavily backed leading up to the race but if you got in early and took the fixed (as I did and always do!) you would have stolen her at $8! She was always overs and proved it on Saturday running home over the top of them. Meddler missed the kick in her race and was never involved when finishing last. I’m not sure she was going well enough to be in the finish anyway, but she’s certainly more capable than what she showed on Saturday. Expect her to bounce back with a good ride/run next time.

I plucked one out from Sunshine Coast in Race 2 as one of my best roughies for the day in Tobouggie Woogie and the little ripper got us home at $10! She was too strong in the final stages, going home the better and just getting the nod on the line. Another who got crunched in the betting, with an SP of about $5.50, but as I always say... Get in early!! It pays off to do so, as we saw on the weekend.

Finally, For Your Eyes Only ran a disappointing race 1^st-up over in the west, failing to finish the race off and dropping out in the straight. She may have needed a longer break, having never had one longer than 12 weeks. 18 starts is a lot for a 3 year old filly... Suspect she’ll bounce back anyway.

Let’s get into it for this week. Hopefully we can keep the ball rolling from last weekend and keep that spring kitty growing!

THE PREVIEW

Flemington – Race 3 – 1800m

Well I thought we’d start the day off with a bit of fun by backing something at massive odds. MARKUS MAXIMUS (3) is a Group 1 winner (so the potential is there!) who hasn’t been travelling quite as well of late. However, I think I can find some genuine excuses for him and give us a good reason as to why it might be worth having a go at $31! Last campaign, he ran 9^th and 6^th respectively, before turning out a solid 3^rd-up run finishing 3^rd behind some nice staying types. Also, his first 2 starts this preparation have seen him going around on heavy tracks, which don’t suit and over 1400m and 1600m, which are too short for him. He gets out to a more desirable 1800m today and gets the weight drop and a suspected drying track. Being the Rising Starts Final, I’m also happy to see Jarrod Fry go on board who can match it with the best of them. I know the horse hasn’t been going great guns, but good trainers can turn good horses form around quickly and I think with any luck, he can definitely figure somewhere in the finish at massive odds. TINAMOU (5) and MISS LILY ROSE (8) are the ones to beat.

**Back MARKUS MAXIMUS each way.

Flemington – Race 4 – 2500m

I’ve found another one at nice each way odds here in JERVOIS (11). He gets back and settles really well, and finishes his races off very nicely over the concluding stages. The South Australians usually go ok when they bring them east and I’ve certainly got a bit of time for this horse at around $7. The open spaces and long straight at Flemington should be ideal, and if the pace is on in the early stages, expect him to be storming late. I think this is a pretty open race and I’m happy to take the value. There isn’t really anything else that grabs my attention for value.

**Back JERVOIS (11) each way.

Flemington – Race 6 – 1600m

Well I would’ve thought this horse is probably the most obvious choice of the day, as he was 2 weeks ago. DOUBTFUL JACK (5) just seems to be in a league of his own in these races. His last 2 wins have been as easy as it gets and unless something goes horribly wrong, I just can’t see this week being any different. He steps out to 1600m for the first time, but the way he’s been finishing off his races I don’t think it will be an issue. He should get a nice sit and once they hit the straight, expect him to extend away from them and make light work of it. GHOSTMILK (10) looks as though she might fill the obvious quinella for Moody. She’s got the quick back-up to contend with and goes back up against the boys, where she is yet to prove herself. All the same, I think she has enough class about her and is racing well enough to be somewhere in the finish. She gets Bossy but Moody has put his #1 on his best horse who should prove too strong for the lot of them at $2.40.

**Back DOUBTFUL JACK (5) to win.

Eagle Farm – Race 6 – 1200m

I’m getting back on the bandwagon of PAPRIKA (4) here. Stathi Katsidis is riding in great form at the moment and knows how to get the best out of this filly. She responded well to a mini freshen up after her Doomben 10,000 failure, running a solid 3^rd last time. With any luck, the rain will stay away and she’ll get a firm track so she can re-find her best form. I think $4.60 is fantastic odds and if she shows up today, she could win easily...

**Back PAPRIKA (4) to win.

Newmarket UK – July Cup – 1200m

One of Europe’s biggest sprint races takes place on Friday night (12:10am on Sat), and considering there are Aussies involved I thought it would be fitting to take a little look... STARSPANGLEDBANNER looks to be close to a good thing and I’m making him one of my best bets for the weekend at around $2.25. He is an absolute freak of nature and after watching him win the Golden Jubilee, I can’t see why he won’t blow them away again. He is a speed machine gaining praise from everyone involved in him and he’s going to do us proud this weekend by taking out the English double. NICCONI is a good horse but is up and down. I think even if he’s up he’ll struggle to run down Starspangledbanner, likely giving him too big a head start. ALVERTA is at $26 and rightly so. She ran a good race in the Golden Jubilee but she can’t win this. She’s just not good enough. Last year’s winner, Fleeting Spirit, is out for back-to-back victories and could be the main danger to the Aussies.

**Back STARSPANGLEDBANNER to win.

Well that’s it on the racing front for this week. I hope we’ve found you a few good things to keep your pockets full!

Did I mention that at the beginning of the World Cup my 2 winning predictions were Spain and Holland? Hmmm... Maybe a code-switch to soccer??

Happy punting!

Ratters.