Ratmail - Racing Tips and Analysis: 17th July 2010 | Thebigtip

G’day punters!

Welcome to a new edition of Ratmail. This week sees us travel to Flemington, Doomben and Rosehill in search of what I think are the best bets of the weekend. Before we jump into that, let’s quickly recap last weekend’s best...

THE REVIEW
We started the weekend with a couple of roughies and that’s pretty much all they turned out to be. We definitely went a run too soon with Markus Maximus. Being a Group 1 winner, the potential is obviously there but he was flat as a tack and I suspect he needs it much further to produce anything substantial.

Jervois was a little better but still only managed to finish 5th. The jockey elected to sit closer to the pace in this race and he faded out in the straight. I think he’s probably better taking a sit and trying to come from behind.

I made Doubtful Jack my bet of the day and that he was! He absolutely demolished his rivals by 6 and a half without even being stretched out. His camp is now looking towards the spring with a possible start in the Toorak Handicap as his ‘grand final’. He was so far beyond his rivals this preparation that it makes you wonder why he was even going around. We’ve got a serious race horse on our hands...

Heading north, Paprika was disappointing. She was heavily backed leading up to the race but faded in the straight to finish 5th. It’s frustrating seeing horses with potential run below their best, and it also makes hard work backing them.

Heading even further north, and on a more positive note, one of the shining lights of Australian racing, Starspangledbanner, did us proud once more by taking out the July Cup. He once again proved he is amongst the world’s best with a narrow but hard fought victory. He may be heading to stud now and continuing the impressive Choisir blood line.

Right-e-o! Let’s jump into this week’s best bets. They are as follows:

THE PREVIEW
Caulfield – Race 2 – 1000m
I’ve got a first starter here on my best bets card and I don’t have much rationale behind it. You’re just going to have to trust my theories on this one! TOO DEADY (7) is by Street Cry and owned by the Eales racing team, and of course trained by none other than Mark Kavanagh (for those not aware, other horses with this combination include Whobegotyou and Shocking). That’s the first thing I like. Secondly and most importantly, Kavanagh DOES NOT take his horses straight to Saturday grade unless there’s something extra special about them. He likes to bring them through the grades like any good trainer should do. Last time he sent out a debutante on a Saturday we saw We’re Gonna Rock break records and build himself a reputation of ‘the next big thing’. This horse wouldn’t be here if he wasn’t above average.  He’s got Ollie on board and starts from barrier 1. All positive signs for mine and at $5 I’m willing to bet he’ll be a good thing.
**Back TOO DEADLY (7) to win.

Caulfield – Race 5 – 1400m
I’ve brought back a favourite of mine here in BRIEFED (2). This race is considered an even contest with Briefed and Beyond Pardon sharing favouritism at $6! In my eyes that spells ‘value’. Last time we backed him, he was a good thing beaten when storming home to finish less than a length from the winner after being held up for a long time during the straight. Even though his form suggests he’s better over the shorter distances, on his last run you would need to presume that the step up to 1400m will suit. The rest of the field, bar a couple, seem only average and he’s above that. I love the way he’s been hitting the line and I expect him to run a big race today and get the nice win he deserves.
**Back BRIEFED (2) to win.

Rosehill – Race 6 – 1500m
GHOSTMILK (6) was scratched last week and saved for this (probably because they knew it was worthless trying to compete with Doubtful Jack!), and I think it will pay off. Last time out she blitzed them easily and looks to have a bit of ability. She comes up against the handy Illuminates but I think today she’ll assert herself as a mare worthy of competing in some nice fillies and mares races in the spring. Peter Robl takes the ride and she gets in with the 53kg. Looks ideal and she should prove to be a class above.
**Back GHOSTMILK (6) to win.

Doomben – Race 3 – 1010m
PINS ON PARADE (1) looks nicely placed in this race and has come up a solid favourite at around $2.10. He hasn’t been too far away of late and gets back to a track where he’s yet to be beaten. He’s also 3 from 4 over the short trip so this race looks ideal. I’m not sure about the ability of the rest of the field, and even though he’s carrying 58kg, he carried that same weight during his last win and I think he’ll be too good for this lot anyway.
**Back PINS ON PARADE (1) to win.

Well that’s another week of winter down and another week closer to spring. Good luck over the weekend and happy punting!

Ratters.