Matt Newton exit lacks the X Factor | Thebigtip

Punters put up some fairly high stakes when they take an educated stab at picking a correct sporting result. But in most cases, the amounts are small against some of the corporate gambling.

Case in point, Matthew Newton. One month out of rehab and Channel 7 trusts that drugs and violence are behind the star.

Next week we’ll be picking up the odds on the X Factor as it boils down to its Australian Idol-like format.

Let’s hope we, as punters, don’t make the same mistakes Channel 7 did when choosing their host. "Matthew had a strong commitment to the program – he has tried his utmost to make it work," a statement from the network read.

"He has the support of his family and close circle of friends as he works his way back to full health."

For those who haven’t caught the gossip, Newton quit the X Factor after fighting with girlfriend Rachael Taylor in a Rome hotel. Seems you can take the boy out of the country …

Regardless, we’ll be keeping a close eye on the X Factor over coming weeks in search of a winner.

Here’s some early tips:

1. Reality TV is as much about personality as it is talent. Look out for someone who might capture the hearts of the viewing audience aka David Wirrpanda in Dancing with the Stars.

2. Be careful about betting early. There will be short-priced favourites based very much on vision which has been heavily edited. Rarely will the network give you all the details in the first few weeks.

3. Look for someone you think will improve, aka Lee Dewyze in American Idol. We picked him 8 weeks out as the winner.

4. If someone has attitude or seems to have tickets on themselves – rightly or wrongly – scratch them from your list straight away. They won’t win!

A fifth would be to tap into The Big Tip for weekly updates.