X Factor Odds Show Value | Thebigtip

Many will have Altiyan Childs already as the winner of the X Factor.

But betting on reality television shows has proven that the favourite rarely wins.

There are reasons for that. Primarily, this is more than just a singing contest. It is a popularity contest. It is also a manipulation exercise craftily constructed by Simon Cowell.

Judges are taught to confuse, with a mission to increase the level of voting.

Let’s look back at past experiences: In American Idol, Adam Lambert was beaten in the final - clearly the better performer, but regarded by the voting public as a “freak”. It was inevitable he would do better on the music charts, but I reiterate, this is not about talent alone.

Shannon Noll, Anthony Callea ... the list goes on. Those pulling the strings know that the runners up of these competitions had more potential.

They also know that their marketing teams can bleed 12 months out of the person who has some talent, but won what is essentially a popularity contest.

Don’t get me wrong. I love this stuff. But we’re talking about betting here.

Reality television history might show that Altiyan will need to stand in the wings for another 12 months before he becomes the superstar he deserves to be.

But there are two things which might be in his favour after this week:

1. He is in a three-horse race, not two. When there are two people left and one is controversial, it is inevitable that the psychologically “clean” performer will win, purely for the reason that only his true fans will vote for him. Fans of the other 11 performers will go the other way. It’s a bit like Collingwood in a grand final. Magpie fans will support Collingwood. All the rest will support the other team, whoever that might be. BUT, and it’s a very big BUT, this is a contest of three which means the “vote for the rest” could be split between Sally and Andrew. This will help Altiyan.

2. He’s up against another “freak”. In reality television, anyone who is not “normal” rarely wins. It’s like an election. Whether we like it or not, the clean cut politician will usually come up trumps. But Sally has more holes in her face than dear Liza had in her bucket. Regardless of talent, the public might be reluctant to vote for the “weird” one.

All that said, let’s throw in another curve ball.

Altiyan fronts INXS who are nowhere near as popular as they once were. Sally fronts Jamiraquai who are neither at the forefront of the charts these days. Andrew Lawson, however, sings with James Blunt which seems to be the perfect fit for his style of singing. If the older demographic decides it’s worth jumping on the phone - and the younger girls are suitably crooned, we could have a dark horse winner on our hands.

It’s really not as silly as it sounds.

Rather than offer a clear tip, let’s talk in pure betting terms. For mine, $10 for Andrew Lawson is well over the odds, $2.55 for Sally is slightly under, and $1.55 for Altiyan is also slightly under, although he deserves to be the favourite. Regardless of how Altiyan performs, it’s unlikely he’ll get any shorter than that, so hold off any bets on him until after he sings.