A South African's Perspective On The Boks' Chances | Thebigtip

Frequently I am asked about my feelings about the Springboks’ chances at the World Cup. Can the Boks do it? Can they be the first team to retain the Web Ellis trophy? Can the Springboks beat one of the most powerful All Black teams in the last five years? Unfortunately, the answer is a flat-out no. The Springboks will not win the 2011 Rugby World Cup. As a matter of fact, I think this year’s lot should be very satisfied with a semi final spot. I wouldn’t put my money on them reaching that stage though. While the blunt nature of my answer may be off-putting to many, I would like to use this article to validate my view and show to all reading this why it will be impossible for the boys in green and gold to keep the title of World Champions.

The reasons the Springboks will not win will be covered in the following order: Peter de Villiers, poor game plan, poor selection and John Smit. Already the majority of readers are put off, as just about the entire rugby community makes Smit out to be some God that South African rugby would be lost without. I’ll save the best argument for the last paragraph, but for now I’d like to talk about the second-worst coach in Springbok history (you’ll never get worse then Straueli): Peter de Villiers.

Selected based on the colour of his skin, Peter de Villiers has turned Springbok rugby into a laughing stock. Uncontrollable media gaffs, losses to teams like Scotland and Ireland and selections from hell are only but a few of the things that characterises P Divvy’s time at the helm of Bok rugby. de Villiers currently enjoys a not-too-disastrous success rate of 61%, but one seriously needs to consider how frequently the Springboks play poor opposition (A match against Wales, a second-string French team and two against Italy was the way 2010 began). As the Tri-Nations began and the South Africans faced really tough opposition in the form of the All Blacks and the Wallabies, they suddenly looked at sixes and sevens, losing five out of six matches. Guys like Januarie, Kirchner, Olivier and Spies kept getting selected despite constantly performing so horribly that they turned out to be total liabilities. If you impress Div once you’re in the Boks for life, hence why Habana will never be dropped no matter how useless he is. That “magical” 2009 year under de Villiers contained the following: A series win over the worst British and Irish Lions side in history thanks to a miraculous 55 metre penalty from Morne Steyn, victories over injury-riddled Australian and New Zealand teams, losses to France, Ireland, Saracens and Leicester and an incredibly laboured win over the Italians. That year doesn’t sound too magical if you ask me.

The Springboks game-plan is completely out-dated. Kicking up and unders and kicking for poles from everywhere on the pitch is not the way rugby should be played now. It is no coincidence that the teams that are performing best are the teams famous for running rugby. Fourie du Preez is a liablilty. Don’t get me wrong, when he runs I also rate him as the best scrumhalf in the world. But, the problem is, he kicks box-kicks from almost every ruck and it robs his team of possession and go-forward ball. I know what some people say, “He kicks it perfectly for his wings to chase. He’s got such an accurate boot”. Please do yourself a favour and watch the Bulls this season. How often do they get the ball back? Almost never. The above paragraph also applies to Morne Steyn with his kicking away of just about every touch on the ball he gets. The Springboks will not win the World Cup with a kicking Fourie du Preez and Morne Steyn as the halfback combination. Du Preez needs to run and Morne must be replaced. JP Pietersen is not the best right-wing in the country, and if you tell yourself he is then you are kidding yourself. Only good for finishing, Pietersen almost never breaks tackles or does anything creative. I’d much rather see Aplon, Basson, Hougaard or van den Heever on South Africa’s wings. Pietersen shouldn’t even make the squad.

Now, for the Smit debacle. I’m certain that most will agree that his rugby skills are questionable at best?  If you think he’s been playing remotely good rugby for the last few years, you need to seek mental treatment. For the sake of using a full season of statistics, let me take last year’s Super 14 as an example. Gary Botha doesn’t even get mentioned when it comes to the Springboks, yet he was tackling at 85% last year in comparison to Smits 69%. Botha has consistently out-perfromed Smit (As have Tiaan Liebenberg, Deon Fourie, Adriaan Strauss and Schalk Brits). Smit does not deserve to be anywhere near a Springbok jersey. The main argument used by the Smit-lovers is that he is an “inspirational” captain. Post 2007, how is it that he is inspirational? A captains success rate of 67% as opposed to 87%  from a guy like Richie McCaw certainly doesn’t inspire me. He is stuck in the stone-age as far as rugby strategy is concerned. He is a liability to his team’s attack as he refuses to adapt from conservative play. Smit also spends more time trying to suck up to the refs then he does playing the game, and he has a history of hissy-fits when decisions don’t go his way. Not such inspirational leadership if you ask me. South African sports personality Pat Symcox recently ventured that if you have a very small lead with only a couple of minutes to go, you really want Smit on the field. Do people not remember that the Boks and All Blacks were tied with a minute to go in August in the Tri-Nations last year? Then an unfit and overweight looking Smit missed the regulation tackle on Nonu that lead to a pass to Dagg who went over for the match-winning try.  He is poor in the following departments: Tackling, scrummaging, ball-handling, line-out throwing, carrying and decision making.

With a lunatic for a coach, horrifying selections, out-dated tactics and the most over-rated captain in the history of sport, I won’t be putting any money on the Boks to make history this year. While the country itself has potential, the right people aren’t selected and the right structures are not put in place. I’d put a lot of money on New Zealand taking their second trophy.