Joel's First Round Analysis | Thebigtip

In the first few rounds of a Grand Slam there are always many thrashings. Instead of telling you that the likes of Nadal, Federer and Djokovic are all going to easily win their first round matches, I am going to look at some of the more evenly matched encounters.

David Nalbandian (27) vs. Lleyton Hewitt

These two 5'11" 29 year olds will meet in without a doubt the most anticipated first round match up in Australia and hence my longer match analysis. In my recent article, I showed how Hewitt (at #4) and Nalbandian (#10) both rank in the top 10 most successful players of this century.  They have both have had significant amount of time off due to injury in recent years and their current rankings reflect this; former world number one Hewitt is at #54 and former world number three Nalbandian will be at #21 on Monday. We don't have to look back very far to see what they are capable of though. Hewitt won Halle last year beating Federer in the final and Nalbandian defeated five top 15 players during an 11-match winning streak in July/August.

Hewitt's incredible bad luck with Grand Slam draws in the past few years has continued here. He has been drawn to play Federer or Nadal before the quarter-finals in seven of his last nine Grand Slams. Nalbandian may not be in the same league as the top two, but he is in form, making the final of Auckland on Saturday. However, since reaching ten major quarter-finals or better before 2007, the Argentine has been very disappointing in Grand Slams. He often shows great promise before a Grand Slam only to lose early. For example he won Sydney the week before the Australian Open in 2009 only to lose in the second round of the main event to Yen-Hsun Lu. Being in a different country the week before a Grand Slam, Auckland has proven not to be the best warm up for Australian Open contenders. Hewitt has taken the exhibition route and Kooyong classic champions usually fare very well. Amazingly, the two have only met five times, but three were very important matches, the 2002 Wimbledon final (Hewitt won), 2005 Australian Open quarter-finals (Hewitt won) a 2005 Davis Cup match in Sydney (Nalbandian won). They have only played once since 2005, with Nalbandian winning in the Sydney international in 2009 but Hewitt still leads 3-2 overall.

Nalbandian hasn't beaten a top 40 player at a major since the Australian Open in 2007. Without injury forcing him to reduce his schedule, Hewitt is definitely a top 40 player and given his better preparation I expect him to win this. Joel's big tip: Hewitt in 5.

Thiemo De Bakker vs. Gael Monfils (12)

These two are both former junior Wimbledon champions, de Bakker winning in 2006 and Monfils in 2004. At 24 years old, Monfils is two years older than de Bakker (both born in September). Whilst both are former junior number ones, Monfils was a class above as he also won boys' Grand Slams at the Australian Open and Roland Garros. This difference has been reflected in the senior ranks with Monfils being top 20 for every week since October 2008 and de Bakker yet to rank above #40. The head-to-head is 2-1 in favour of Monfils, with Monfils winning two hard court battles last year in straight sets. De Bakker's only win over Monfils came on clay in 2009, when the Dutchman had home court advantage at the Davis Cup. 

De Bakker, currently ranked #46, may have been considered one of the more dangerous non-seeded players coming into the Australian Open. That is before he lost in the opening round of Brisbane and Auckland hence confirming his slump at the end of last season has continued into 2011. His losing streak now stands at six matches. Given this and Monfils reliability at dealing with early rounds at Grand Slams (his last first round loss at a Grand Slam was as a teenager in 2006) I was tipping a Monfils win in three. However, injury prone Monfils is yet again under an injury cloud following the Kooyong classic final so I advise keeping your betting wallets closed for this match.

Ryan Harrison (WC) vs. Adrian Mannarino

Harrison (aged 18) and Mannarino (aged 22) make up the youngest clash of the first round and have predictably never met before. Both have one Grand Slam win to their name, both at coming at the US Open last year. Frenchman Mannarino is at a career high #80 and American Harrison is ranked #173, three short of his career high. When new names emerge in the top 100, it is important to see how they got there. As expected, Mannarino gained most his points on the Challenger circuit winning two titles from four finals. Something of note, however, is that virtually all his points have come on hard courts. Another promising sign is his run in Auckland this week, qualifying then beating Monaco and Clement to make the quarter-finals.

However I fancy Harrison in this match. The American may be a wild card, but he had to work for it, winning a play-off in the United States similar to the one run in Australia each December. Mannarino has lost easily in five of the six Grand Slam matches he has played and only barely scraped by clay courter Riba at the US Open last year. It will be a tough match, but Harrison should prevail and become the youngest 1st round winner at a non-home Slam since Del Potro here in 2007. Joel's big tip: Harrison in 4.

Juan Ignacio Chela vs. Michael Llodra (22)

From the youngest clash, to a pair of tour veterans, Chela (31 years old) and Llodra (30) both had excellent 2010 seasons. Similar to Samantha Stosur, Llodra has achieved great things in doubles (winning three Grand Slams) and is only now peaking in singles. He currently sits at a career high 22 in the rankings, enabling him to be seeded in a Grand Slam for only the second time (32nd seed at Wimbledon 2008).

Chela may not be at a career high (#15 reached in 2004), but as an Argentinean slow courter in his thirties, he is doing very well for himself. Chela stands at #38 thanks to two clay court title last year, his first titles since 2007. Llodra also won two titles last year and is known for being very tough to beat when he is motivated and on form. The Frenchman had a very memorable end to last year, holding match points versus Soderling in the Paris Masters1000 semi-finals and competing in a (losing) Davis Cup final. However his apparent lack of motivation for the Australian summer of tennis - playing no warm up events or exhibitions in 2011 - leads to me to tip Chela. Also influencing my tip are Llodra's 2-9 record at the Australian Open singles and Chela's 5-0 set record against his opponent. Joel's big tip: Chela in 4.

Albert Montanes  (25) vs. Dustin Brown

Like Chela and Llodra, Montanes also won two titles last year. The Spaniard is 30 years old and ranked #25, only three spots away from his career high achieved in August last year. He has only ever been seeded for five Grand Slams, but each time he has, he has taken advantage and made at least the third round. In fact, the only players to have beaten him in this last six Grand Slams have been ranked in the top world's top 12.

Now 26, Brown only managed to crack the top 100 for the first time last year and, with Montanes, adds to the growing trend of late bloomers on tour. Last year Brown claimed he wasn't receiving adequate funding from the Jamaican Tennis Association and switched to playing for Germany in October 2010. If he continues to rise like he has been - going from being ranked in the 400s at the beginning of 2009 to a career high #92 now - he may not need any additional funding soon. 
Despite Brown's impressive ascent, I am tipping Montanes in this match. Some things in Brown favour is that he is a hard court player and Montanes, who is on a four match losing streak, definitely favours clay. However the Spaniard's ability to successfully negotiate lower ranked opponents at all recent Grand Slams is what should get him over the line. Joel's big tip: Montanes in 4.

Gilles Simon vs. Yen-Hsun Lu

By winning his 8th career title in Sydney, 26 year old Simon will jump up to #34 in Monday's rankings. That makes this clash an all top 35 match, a very unlikely scenario between two non-seeded players in the first round of a Grand Slam. 27 year old Lu may be just shy of being seeded and only a mere two spots away from his career high, but his ranking breakdown leaves something to be desired. Over a quarter of his points are from Challengers and he has not a single ATP semi-final to his name in his whole career. Lu's claim to fame was his Wimbledon quarter-final showing last year, beating Roddick in the fourth round. That was Lu's only top 40 win the entire year as he went 1-10 overall.

Simon had a knee injury last year that kept him out of the Australian Open and Roland Garros. He has come back strong, winning Metz in September and now Sydney. Without even taking their head-to-head into account, I would tip Simon in straight sets. Simon won their first meeting in 2009 in Indian Wells on hard court and just beat Lu again in the first round of Sydney 6-0 6-3. A result that convincing and that recent is tough to argue with. Joel's big tip: Simon in 3.