Joel's Fourth Round Analysis | Thebigtip

Just like in my second round analysis, I picked four from five in the third round (with Isner's very close loss to Cilic my only error). After my usual match discussions I've included short tips for the remaining fourth round matches. Overall, I predict all top eight seeds in the quarter-finals with the exception of Roddick.

Nicolas Almagro (14) vs. Novak Djokovic (3)

Last year at the US Open, there were an incredible six Spaniards in the round of 16. However, only two Spaniards made it to the next round, and this was the minimum amount possible as there were two all Spanish fourth round encounters. In this, the next Grand Slam, five have advanced to that stage and I expect most to fall again at this round. In other fourth round action, Federer will almost certainly account for Robredo due to his 9-0 win loss record against the Spaniard. I'm analysing Almagro versus Djokovic instead; it is the more interesting encounter as the two have never played a complete match. 

Reasons to back Djokovic

In the half match they did play in Rome in 2008, Djokovic was up 6-1 1-0 before Almagro had to retire. Due to the retirement, not much can be taken from this match. The real reason to back Djokovic is that he loves hard courts and Almagro's career revolves around his clay results. Djokovic has 14 hard court titles, Almagro has not even reached a hard court final. Djokovic has a 201-60 record on hard, Almagro has a 42-55 record.

Reasons to back Almagro

Before this event, the highest ranked player Almagro has beaten in a Grand Slam that wasn't Roland Garros was 38th ranked Benjamin Becker at the Australian Open last year. In the last round he beat 17th seed Ljubicic in straight sets for his biggest Grand Slam win outside Roland Garros. He saved two match points in his second round win and perhaps he is playing like he has nothing to lose. That combined with his offensive shot making could make him dangerous.

Joel's Big Tip

Almagro aggression might be enough to snare him a set but even that's being generous. Djokovic in 3.

Tomas Berdych (6) vs. Fernando Verdasco (9)

This all top 10 clash sees another Spaniard face off against a top 8 seed, although this one is harder to pick. I still give the edge to the higher seed, but Berdych is not in the same class as Djokovic and Verdasco is a better hard court player than Almagro. Verdasco, 27 years old, is playing his 31st straight Grand Slam main draw while Berdych, 25, has reached his 30th on the trot. They both have five career titles and approximately $7.5m in prize money.

Reasons to back Verdasco

Like his fellow Spaniard Almagro, Verdasco saved multiple match points in his second round clash. This was against dangerous Serbian Tipsarevic and he then coasted against talented youngster Nishikori. Verdasco's breakthrough tournament came at the Australian Open two years ago when he made the semi-finals and produced one of the matches of 2009 against Nadal. Last year he was again only stopped in five sets, losing to Davydenko who was on a 12-match winning streak.

Reasons to back Berdych

Berdych's record at the Australian Open may not be as good as Verdasco's (he has never made it to the quarter-finals), but he hasn't played here since his Grand Slam breakthrough last year at Wimbledon. He is now a genuine Grand Slam threat and has put recent bad form behind him with three convincing wins so far. He leads the head-to-head 6-4.

Joel's Big Tip  

They met three times in 2010, with Verdasco winning their last match which was on clay in Monte Carlo. However Berdych won their two hard court meetings last year and is 4-1 against his opponent on this surface with Verdasco's win coming way back in 2005. Berdych in 4. 

Andy Roddick (8) vs. Stanislas Wawrinka (19)

Roddick has been in every year-end top 10 since 2002. Wawrinka has been a top 30 player or better for essentially three years now. Unfortunately, their only two matches outside the Davis Cup ended when Roddick withdrew in the first set. Roddick won their Davis Cup meeting in early 2009, but it was played in the United States and the Cup's format heavily favours the home team.

Reasons to back Roddick

If you take their whole career into account, Roddick should be an unbackable favourite. Accolades like former world number one and US Open champion are tough to compete with. Also, along with his consistently higher ranking, he is a hard and grass court specialist whereas Wawrinka prefers clay. He reached the semi-finals here in 2003, 05, 07 and 09 and is therefore due for another final four showing.

Reasons to back Wawrinka

However, it's not about career weight, it's about now. Wawrinka has played tougher opponents than Roddick has in the first three rounds and, unlike Roddick, has not lost a set. His eight match winning streak also includes a thrashing of Berdych in the semi-finals of Chennai. Since his memorable quarter-final run at the US Open, when on tour he has virtually only lost to top 5 players. The only exception was his loss to Monfils and he revenged that in straight sets in the previous round. 

Joel's Big Tip

Wawrinka is 25 years old and my studies have shown that this is the average age professional tennis players reach their peak (see my article on age and ranking). Meanwhile Roddick, at 28 years old, is still an excellent player but past his best tennis. I have tipped Wawrinka in his last two matches and will continue to do so here. Wawrinka in 5.

Andy Murray (5) vs. Jurgen Melzer (11)

Both of these professionals decided to play exhibitions rather than ATP tournaments coming into the Australian Open this year. Murray went three for three at the Hopman Cup while Melzer won two and lost two in Kooyong (against higher ranked opposition).   

Reasons to back Melzer

At 29 years old, Melzer has been on tour for a long time. Until mid last year, it looked as though he was going to carve out a solid career but never really hit the big time. In his first 31 Grand Slams, he never made the fourth round and had a 0-11 record in 3rd round matches. That changed at Roland Garros last year, where he went all the way to the semi-finals, defeating top clay courters Ferrer and Djokovic along the way. Since that breakthrough, he has increased confidence in big matches. He made the fourth round of Wimbledon and the US Open, losing to Federer each time. With three relatively easy wins here, he has now reached four consecutive Grand Slam fourth rounds.  

Reasons to back Murray

Unfortunately for Melzer, he plays Murray, who he has never beaten in four matches. Although none of their meetings came after Melzer's career breakthrough, Murray will be comforted by the fact that he has beaten Melzer in hard court Grand Slams twice, including a straight sets win here in 2009. Melzer may be a better clay courter than Murray, but on hard courts the Scotsman is far superior. He has reached two Grand Slam finals on the surface and has a massive 12 hard court titles including five Masters1000.

Joel's Big Tip

Murray proved he can play great in Melbourne by reaching the final last year. His very impressive hard court resume and the fact that he has never lost to Melzer means that Murray is the likely winner. Murray in 3.  

Nadal (1) vs. Cilic (15) - Cilic won the only time they have played; a 6-3 6-1 thrashing toward the end of 2009, however that was on a faster court and Nadal has improved his serve since then. Cilic only just scraped by Isner in the last round. Nadal in 4.

Raonic vs. Ferrer (7) - Canadian Raonic is only 20 years old and has outshone all other players aged 21 and under at this year's event. The two have never played but Ferrer is one of  the game's best competitors and shouldn't let this opportunity slip. Ferrer in 4.

Soderling (4) vs. Dolgopolov - These two have not played either but Soderling stream rolled his first three opponents and is coming off a win in Brisbane. He should be too powerful for the young Ukrainian. Soderling in 3.  

Robredo vs. Federer (2) - No matter what the surface or condition, Federer wins easily. He owns a 9-0 career mark against the Spaniard incluing 21-2 is sets. After a tricky second round, Federer has had generous third and fourth round draws.

Federer in 3.