Joel's Quarter Final Analysis | Thebigtip

In the fourth round I correctly backed Wawrinka to upset Roddick but missed a perfect eight from eight when Dolgopolov upset Soderling in five sets. The often claimed 'big four' of Nadal, Federer, Djokovic and Murray are still alive and look to all make their way into the semi-finals of a Grand Slam for the first time since the 2008 US Open. I am tipping a Spaniard, Swiss, Serb and Scot in the final four, but Wawrinka in the place of Federer.

Stanilas Wawrinka (19) vs. Roger Federer (2)

The 2008 doubles Olympic gold medallists are both off to great starts to the year. Going into this match, the top two Swiss are 9-0 each in 2011 but one streak must end here.

Reasons to back Wawrinka

If you have been following my predictions you'll know that I have been extremely convinced by Wawrinka's form and have backed him continually. Sure he's on a winning streak and at the ideal age to take his career to the next level but there's more to it than that. After a player goes through a big change, unpredictable match results often occur. For example, a change in coach can lead to a winning streak and the birth of a child can precede a bad patch. Although Wawrinka's announcement of the separation from his wife may seem negative, it can result in a new mindset and consequently sensational results.

Reasons to back Federer

When players have gone on hot streak in the past, Federer has more often than not been the one to stop them, especially in Grand Slams. In the Australian Open 2006 final he beat Baghdatis who had earlier taken out Roddick and Nalbandian. The next year's final he thrashed Gonzalez who's career best form had seen him beat Hewitt and Nadal. Just last year the Swiss legend came back to derail Davydenko in the quarter-finals, finally ending the Russian's 12 match winning streak. Federer is 6-1 versus his countryman, including the last four and three in 2010.  

Joel's Big Tip

Friendships will be brushed aside and I think a highly competitive match will result. Federer has lost in the quarter-finals of two of his last three Grand Slams and I think he will be upset again at that stage. Wawrinka in 4. 

Tomas Berdych (6) vs. Novak Djokovic (3)

This match should be the best of the quarter-finals and consists of the losing finalists (to Nadal) at the last two Grand Slams. It is very difficult to pick; Berdych is playing excellently and is at a career high #6 in the rankings and Djokovic is playing as well as his #3 ranking signifies.

Reasons to back Berdych

If these two had played in any Grand Slam between Roland Garros 2007 and Roland Garros 2010, I would've had no hesitation picking Djokovic. Their first Grand Slam match finally came in the semi-finals of Wimbledon last year and Berdych won in straight sets having beaten Federer in the match before. They were the defining two matches of Berdych's career and is the reason this match is such a tossup. Before then Berdych had often blasted his way through a Grand Slam before falling to a top seed. He has once again handily made his way to the last eight, but now he can be considered a real chance of beating a top four favourite.   

Reasons to back Djokovic

Djokovic may have lost their solitary Grand Slam encounter but he has won all their other meetings. This includes two non-Slam but nevertheless important matches in the latter parts of last year; a Davis Cup semi-final in Serbia and the World Tour Finals. Berdych may not have been in good form then (he went 5-12 from the US Open onwards last year), but the Czech also lost their two other matches in 2008 and 2009. A key statistic from their head-to-head record is that Djokovic is 4-0 on hard courts.

Joel's Big Tip

Both players have only lost one set so far and should be fresh for this potentially great match. Djokovic has lost at the quart-final stage here the last two years but I'll tip the Serbian to scrape in the final four. Djokovic in 5. Centrebet have Djokovic at $1.30 and those who bet can receive a $50 free wagerby clicking here.