Ferrer V Murray Thebigtip | Thebigtip

Well, as I predicted, a Swiss, Serb, Scot and Spaniard are through to the semi-finals, but Ferrer is the tournament's surprise, not Wawrinka. Ever since the 'big four' of Nadal, Federer, Djokovic and Murray got that title at the US Open 2008, there has not been a single major where all four have progressed to the semi-finals (but three have on four occasions).

Novak Djokovic (3) vs. Roger Federer (2)

When these players met in the semi-finals of the 2008 Australian Open, many thought the two would dominate hard court Grand Slams in the years to follow. This has not been the case as Nadal is the only player with two hard court Grand Slams in the past couple of years. However they have developed an intense rivalry, with this their seventh meeting in the past nine hard court Grand Slams. Federer won four of those six encounters, but Djokovic won the last time they played in Australia (2008) and their US Open semi-final last year.

Reasons to back Federer

There are too many to list. Sure he's won more Grand Slams than any other player in history and holds a 13-6 head-to-head advantage but it's his recent form that should also be considered. Since Wimbledon last year (all hard court matches) he has gone 44-4 with five titles from seven finals in nine events. The only times he lost before the final in that streak was after he held match points in the semi-finals (against Djokovic at the US Open and Monfils in Paris indoors). After losing to Djokovic in the last Grand Slam he has beaten the Serbian three times from three with the loss of just one set.

Reasons to back Djokovic

Most of the usual reasons to back Djokovic become void when he plays Federer. Aside from perhaps a medal in singles at the Olympics and Davis Cup, there is little Djokovic has done in his career that Federer could envy. However, when only this event is taken into account, things actually favour the lower seed. Djokovic has beaten higher ranked opponents and has been pushed less overall. His straight sets win over world #6 Berdych was particularly impressive. Federer has twice lost sets to unseeded opponents (Simon and Robredo) when seemingly well in control.

Joel's Big Tip

Federer may be in great form, but his resolve in close moments isn't what it used to be. He lost four encounters last year after holding match points which is very unusual for someone ranked so high. Against Simon and Robredo he was able to get away with some loose passages of play, but against Djokovic he won't have that luxury. I think Djokovic will be better in the close moments which will prove the difference in this Thursday night showdown. Djokovic in 4.   

David Ferrer (7) vs. Andy Murray (5)

The following night Ferrer faces Murray for the sixth time but never have the stakes been so high. Both have been relatively untroubled so far, Ferrer went to four sets twice while Murray only lost his first set of the tournament in his last start against Dolgopolov.

Reasons to back Ferrer

The Spaniard's winning streak is now nine matches, the longest of his career. He won eight in a row in 2007 when he also won Auckland before losing in the fourth round of the Australian Open. Due to his grinding style, he often plays well at the beginning of the year because his legs are fresh from the offseason. Now with two hard court Grand Slam semi-finals (and a title on grass), he should really be considered an all courter rather than a clay courter. Plus his confidence will be elevated after beating the, albeit injured, number one player in the world for the first time  in his career. He holds a 3-2 career edge over Murray, beating the Scot twice last year in Europe.

Reasons to back Murray

All those three wins, however, came on clay courts. While Ferrer could be considered a player for all surfaces, Murray definite worst surface is clay. When the two played on hard court Murray won convincingly both times including a 6-2 6-2 win at the World Tour Finals last year; incidentally Ferrer's last loss. Only two spots separate the contenders in the rankings but the difference in class is marked. As discussed, Murray is typically considered to be in the top four most dangerous players for over two years now while Ferrer is a tier below him. Despite being five years younger (23 years old to 28 years old), Murray has more titles (16 to 10), a higher career high (#2 versus #4) and greater success in big events.

Joel's Big Tip

Expect a lot of breaks as both players are among the very best returners on tour. I was anticipating a Nadal versus Murray semi-final from the beginning of the tournament and didn't know who I was going to back. Ferrer's progression has made this one a lot easier as I expect Murray's experience and hard court talent to be too good for the hard working Spaniard. Murray in 4.