Murray's Mentality | Thebigtip

I made easy money last week. Murray was $1.28 favourite to beat Baghdatis ($4.55) in the first round of Rotterdam. This appears to be fair odds considering Murray's last start was an Australian Open final, he was Rotterdam champion in 2009 and he is world number 5. But losing your 3rd Grand Slam final to be 0-9 in Grand Slam final sets is tough to deal with mentally and it can take a while to recover. 

Murray's first Grand Slam final at the US Open 2008 was different. He wasn't expected to win. He played Federer who had won the title the last four years. Just making the final was a huge achievement. Murray then went on to win his next two tournaments in Madrid and St. Petersburg, beating Federer in Madrid.

Murray's next Grand Slam final was at the Australian Open in 2010. He played Federer again but this time had greater expectation of winning. He had a 6-4 career edge over Federer at the time and this time had Grand Slam finals experience. But Federer again won in straight sets.

Since Murray had reached his first Grand Slam final there had been even greater expectation that he would finally win a Grand Slam for Britain. A player from the United Kingdom hadn't won a Grand Slam  since 1977 (Virginia Wade) and 1936 (Fred Perry) on the men's side. Plus there are very few other British hopes at the moment. By the time Murray made his 2nd Grand Slam final expectations were very high.

After the Australian Open final loss last year Murray went  only had 11 wins from his next 8 events before Wimbledon. This drop in form was almost certainly from feeling like he had disappointed his supporters and missed his chance to get the monkey off his back. Constantly being reminded (by interviews and the media) of your lack of a Grand Slam must be very hard to deal with.

Murray's latest Grand Slam final was just last month at the Australian Open once again. But this time he didn't have to face Federer. Instead he faced Djokovic who he had beaten the last three time they had played. Djokovic may had won the Australian Open before but the Serb's experience is nothing compared to Federer.

After a close first set, Murray was soundly beaten. One of the worst things about missing out on the title for Murray is that the next Grand Slam is so long away. It must be difficult for him to focus on small events when he already has won so many events other than Grand Slams. Given how similar this year has been for Murray so far compared to last year it seems obvious that Murray will slump again.

Murray was planning to play Dubai but recently pulled out due to a wrist injury. People believe that Murray may not have physical injury but instead decided to miss Dubai to regroup mentally. His next event is Indian Wells starting mid March. There is a good chance that he will still be mentally hurting then so it may be worth considering bettting against him. His talent should be enough to win some matches but keep an eye out when he plays a good hard courter or a top 20 player.